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信息不对称、融资者异质性与违约风险——来自P2P平台“人人贷”的经验证据
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TitleAsymmetric Information, Heterogeneity and Default Risk of Financiers  
作者孙武军 张楚清 李瑞海  
AuthorSun Wujun, Zhang Chuqing and Li Ruihai  
作者单位南京大学商学院;海立信会计学院 
OrganizationNanjing University Business School; Shanghai Linxin University of Commerce 
作者Emailwjsun@nju.edu.cn;clearzcq@163.com;liruihai@126.com 
中文关键词P2P网贷 信息不对称 异质性 违约风险 
Key WordsPeer-to-peer Lending; Asymmetric Information; Heterogeneity; Default Risk 
内容提要本文运用P2P平台“人人贷”2010年10月至2015年1月的借款数据,采用Logit模型、OLS回归等方法研究P2P市场中的信息不对称和融资者违约风险。通过研究发现,可选信用认证指标数量和借款描述两者作为P2P市场中信息不对称的代理变量,能够有效提高借款成功率,降低违约率,缓解信息不对称。进一步考虑融资者异质性(以信用等级高低为划分依据)对信息不对称的影响,验证了该市场信息不对称是异质的。最后将两者结合,探究信用等级不同的“异质”融资者向市场发送同一“信号”时,违约风险是否存在差别。实证结果表明,高信用等级的融资者传递上述“信号”能够缓解逆向选择,提高借款成功率;而低信用等级的融资者利用该“信号”虽然提高了借款成功率,但违约风险增加,引发了道德风险。上述结论表明,P2P平台可以运用大数据等方式更加深入地搜集融资者信息,并对融资者区别对待,防范违约风险,减少借贷双方的信息不对称,促进行业持续健康发展。 
AbstractUsing lending data from P2P platform “Renrendai” from Oct. 2010 to Jan. 2015, this paper studies the information asymmetry and default risk of financiers in P2P market with Logit and OlS model. We find that the number of optional credit certificate indicators and the description of the debt can be served as “signals” to alleviate the problem of information asymmetry in P2P market by increasing the probability of success rate and reducing default rate. Then we analyze the effect of the heterogeneity of financier on information asymmetry and find that information asymmetry is heterogeneous. Finally, the paper finds that when the heterogeneity of financier is considered, the effect of the number of optional credit certificate indicators and the description of the debt on probability is different. High-credit financiers can reduce adverse selection and improve success rate by transmitting “signal” while low-credit financiers can also improve success rate but might trigger moral hazard, which means that the default rate of the debt increases. The result suggests that P2P platforms must try their best to search financiers’ information by using big data or something else and deal with different financier with different way according to their hetrogenenity in order to prevent default risk, alleviate information asymmetry and develop the whole industry. 
文章编号WP1013 
登载时间2016-01-08 
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