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长期经济增长一致性理论:内生增长可持续性研究
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TitleThe Sustainability of Long-run Economic Growth under an Unified Growth Model  
作者陈昆亭 周炎 龚六堂  
AuthorChen Kunting, Zhou Yan, and Gong Liutang  
作者单位浙江工业大学;北京大学光华管理学院 
OrganizationCollege of Economics and Management, Zhejiang University of Technology;Guanghua School of Management, Beijing University 
作者Emailchenkt@zjut.edu.cn; 
中文关键词经济发展转型 长期增长理论 内生增长经济的多重均衡 
Key WordsEconomic Transition; The Unified Theory; The theory of sustainable endogenous growth 
内容提要长期经济增长理论的前沿核心理论——内生增长理论预测经济长期均衡状态是一个平衡增长的路径,但世界经济特别是发达经济的最新发展趋势正在构成对这种预测的挑战。这引发新的思考:内生增长的“平衡增长路径”均衡是否是稳定的、可持续的?后工业革命阶段经济发展路径会怎样?长期经济增长是否是可持续的?本文建立了一个包含农业、工业和知识创新的三部门的一致性增长模型,模拟研究近代世界经济发展的一般规律,刻画三个阶段:从1750年开始的各国经济先后逐步从农业经济转化为工业化经济的过程、后工业化阶段人口减少但质量上升的过程、以及以技术知识创新为主要驱动力的新增长阶段(或内生增长阶段);研究这三个阶段中,人口转移变迁、技术进步以及结构比例等因素不同的内在作用机制。模型预测解释指出:(1)农业生产中劳动边际回报率的上升是造成农业劳动剩余的最初原因,由此促进农业劳动向工业流动,这成为工业化转型发展阶段的主要内生动力源泉。(2)当农业劳动向工业可转移量逐步趋于结束,经济发展进入后工业革命阶段,工业化水平提升要求劳动知识化水平不断提高,人口出生率下降换取劳动质量提升的社会行为成为推动这一阶段的经济增长的内在动力源。(3)第一阶段的劳动转移和第二阶段的人口下降都不是可持续的,达到一定程度趋于稳定后,知识创新成为推动经济发展的新阶段内生增长特征。但内生增长阶段经济发展不必然是稳定的,存在多重均衡的可能;当资源约束等制约导致工业生产部门的总技术无法保持长期的常规模回报水平时,只有知识技术的溢出效应足够强,使知识生产部门形成充分的增规模回报率,足以抵消工业生产部门的规模报酬嫌少的影响,总体经济才可以获得内生增长均衡(效果等同于常规模回报技术)。(4)为实现正的内生增长,知识生产部门的增规模回报的强度与物质资本在知识生产中的弹性贡献率成正向相关关系;知识生产部门的增规模强度越接近实现正增长的临界值,内生增长率越高;农业生产中土地的产出弹性越大,为实现正的增长率要求的知识部门的增规模回报强度越高。 
AbstractThe endogenous growth theory--- the core of the long run economic growth theory, has forecasted the long run economic equilibrium should be a balanced growth path. However, it is being challenged by the new growth trend of the world economy, especially by the development of the advanced economy. We need to rethink about: Is the balanced growth path stable and sustainable? Is the long run economic growth sustainable? What is the trend of the economic growth after the industrial revolution? In this paper, based on the unified growth theory, we establish a three-sector model including the agriculture, industry and knowledge innovation sectors. We simulate the three stages of the economic development: first the stage of the transition from the agriculture economy to the industrial economy, then the stage of post-industrial revolution followed by the decreasing of the population, but with an improvement in quality, finally the endogenous growth stage which is driven by the technological innovation. We show that the endogenous growth may not be stable, and there maybe exist multi-equilibria. We draw the conclusions: (1) if the technology in the industrial sector cannot exhibit the constant return to scale in the long run, only if the spillover effect of the knowledge is strong enough to offset the decreasing of the return to scale, the whole economy can be in the balanced endogenous path (just like the case of constant return to scale); (2) to realize a positive endogenous growth, there should be a positive relation between the strongness of the increasing returns to scale and the output elasticity of the physical capital in the production of the knowledge; the closer the strongness of the increasing returns to scale in the knowledge sector approaches the critical value, the higher the endogenous growth rate is; in order to receive a positive growth rate, the larger the land output elasticity in the agriculture sector, the higher the strongness of the increasing returns to scale in the knowledge sector is.  
文章编号WP1005 
登载时间2015-12-30 
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