人力资本的健康损耗与健康GDP路径
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| Title | Health Loss of Human Capital and Path of Health GDP
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| 作者 | 杨继生 马潇萌 |
| Author | Yang Jisheng and Ma Xiaomeng |
| 作者单位 | 华中科技大学经济学院 |
| Organization | Huazhong University of Science and Technology |
| 作者Email | yangjisheng770@163.com，bbhust90@163.com |
| 中文关键词 | 健康人力资本 健康GDP 边际贡献 制度演进 分组效应 |
| Key Words | Health of Human Capital; Health GDP; Marginal Contribution; System Evolution; Grouped Effect. |
| 内容提要 | 粗放型的经济发展模式给居民健康带来了严重威胁，人力资本的健康损耗对经济增长的作用受到了质疑。核算GDP时，不仅要考虑到资源显性成本，更要考虑到健康隐性代价。本文构建了交互效应分组面板SVAR系统以测度中国城乡不同地区人力资本健康损耗的边际贡献和动态趋势。结果显示：城镇人力资本健康损耗的边际效应自东向西呈阶梯型递减，东部地区健康GDP路径比真实路径低1.8%左右，而中西部地区健康损耗的边际贡献大多为负，健康GDP路径比真实路径高0.9%左右。农村健康损耗的边际效应在地理形态上呈现倒“U”型特征，中部地区健康GDP路径比真实路径低2%左右，而西部和东部健康GDP路径一般比真实路径高1.3%左右。制度演进对健康的促进效应在城乡之间表现出竞争性，特别是2009年以前，这表明2009年开始的新医改政策虽然是有效的，但社会健康保障的制度供给仍相对不足。 |
| Abstract | Extensive mode of economic development brings serious threat to the health of residents. The effect caused by health loss of human capital on the economic growth has been doubted. When calculating the GDP, we have to take into account not only the dominant resource costs, but also the hidden costs of health. This paper uses grouped panel data SVAR model with interactive effect to measure the dynamic trends and marginal contribution of health capital loss in different rural and urban region in China. The result shows that the marginal effect of health loss of human capital in the urban area decreases from the east to the west in China. The health costs account for the proportion of real GDP of about 1.8% in the eastern region, while in the central or western part of China, the marginal contribution of health loss is mostly negative. The equilibrium path of health GDP is about 0.9% higher than its real path. The marginal contribution of the health loss in the rural area could be characterized using a inverted “U” shape in the geographic form. The health costs account for the proportion of real GDP of about 2% in the central part of China, The equilibrium path of health GDP in the western and eastern regions is about 1.3% higher than its real path. System shows its competition between rural and urban areas when considering its promotion effect to the human health of the society, especially before the year 2009. This indicates the relative lack of supply in the social health protection system, on the other hand, it indicates the new medical reform policy starting from 2009 has a dramatical effect. |
| 文章编号 | WP1004 |
| 登载时间 | 2015-12-30 |
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