群体有智慧吗?——来自P2P借贷平台的证据
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| Title | Do Crowds Have Wisdom?——Evidence from P2P lending
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| 作者 | 王正位 向佳 廖理 |
| Author | Wang Zhengwei，Xiang Jia and Liao Li |
| 作者单位 | 清华大学五道口金融学院 |
| Organization | PBC School of Finance, Tsinghua University |
| 作者Email | |
| 中文关键词 | 群体智慧 羊群效应 P2P借贷 |
| Key Words | Wisdom of Crowd; Herding; P2P Lending |
| 内容提要 | 互联网金融领域“去专家化”的投资趋势正在凸显群体意见的重要性，而群体是否有智慧就是一个非常重要的话题。本文使用了中国一家P2P借贷平台的交易数据，借助构建的一个羊群行为指标研究了群体智慧对于违约率的预测。我们发现，在控制借款各项特征的情况下，随着羊群效应程度的增强，借款的违约率在下降。进一步的研究发现，对于两笔特征相似的借款，发生羊群效应的借款违约率显著低于未发生羊群效应的借款，因此羊群效应程度可以为判别借款违约概率增加新的信息。本文研究结果表明：在P2P网贷的投资中，群体是有智慧的，并且群体智慧能够提供新的信息。 |
| Abstract | The de-professionalized trend in Internet financial investment highlights the significance of crowd views, and the wisdom of crowd is increasingly attracting researchers’ attention. This study aims to explore the predictive power of crowd views towards default rate by analyzing the evidence from P2P lending. We employed the transaction data from a P2P lending platform in China and constructed the herding measure index for data analysis. We found that the default rate of loan decreases as the herding of investors boosts under the control of all the other characteristics of loans. Further, regarding two loans with similar characteristics, the loan with the herding effect is significantly less likely to default compared with the loan without the herding effect. Herding, therefore, is informative in judging the probability of default. We conclude that the crowd has wisdom in P2P investment and the wisdom of crowd offers new information to this investment. |
| 文章编号 | WP1001 |
| 登载时间 | 2015-12-22 |
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