金融资产配置与实体经济“挤出”效应——来自中国上市公司的证据 阅读全文
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Title | Financial Asset Investment and Real Economy “Crowding Out” Effect
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作者 | 胡奕明 王雪婷 张瑾 |
Author | Hu Yiming,Wang Xueting and Zhang Jin |
作者单位 | 上海交通大学安泰经济与管理学院;新加坡南洋理工大学 |
Organization | Shanghai Jiao Tong University; Nanyang Technological University |
作者Email | huym@sjtu.edu.cn;conniefish@sjtu.edu.cn;JZHANG036@e.ntu.edu.sg |
中文关键词 | 金融资产投资 实体经济投资 挤出效应 |
Key Words | financial asset investment; real economy investment; crowding out effect |
内容提要 | 企业对金融资产进行投资,势必减少对经营资产的投资,这是否会导致实体经济被“挤出”? 本文通过对2002-2011年中国非金融类上市公司的研究,从金融资产投资的“蓄水池”动机和“替代”动机角度,对宏观经济环境如何影响企业的金融资产配置进行了考察。我们发现:1)当货币环境趋紧时,企业会减少对金融资产的配置;当股票市场上涨时,对金融资产的配置也会减少,即企业会更多地卖出金融资产。企业对金融资产的配置以调节资金充裕水平为主要目的,即“蓄水池”动机更强;2)当经济发展处于上升时期,企业对金融资产的配置会增加,对经营资产的配置会减少,当经济处在萧条时期则相反。企业根据投资回报的高低,在经营资产投资和金融资产投资之间进行选择,即“替代”动机更强;3)运作良好、财务状况健康的企业,其金融资产配置会较多,“替代”动机更强。通常来说,“蓄水池”动机不会导致金融对实体经济的“挤出”,但“替代”动机则存在这种可能。上述发现对我国宏观经济政策制定者的意义是,必须关注金融资产和经营资产上的投资回报差异,避免金融资产投资对实体经济投资的过度“替代”。 |
Abstract | The recently booming financial industry in China has attracted increasing attention regarding whether such rapid financial development and expansion have crowded out the “real economy” in firms. Using data from China’s nonfinancial listed companies, we study how macroeconomic factors affect financial asset allocation from the aspect of the reservoir motivation and the substitution motivation. We find that: 1) financial asset investment is lower for tighter monetary policy and for a booming stock market, indicating that the reservoir motivation is stronger; 2) Firms increase financial asset investment and decrease operating asset investment when the economy is going up, that is, the substitution motivation is stronger; 3) financial asset investment is higher when the company’s operation and financial status are better, indicating stronger substitution motivation. The above findings is meaningful to macroeconomic policy makers in that we should pay attention to the return difference between financial asset and operating asset and avoid excessive substitution of financial asset investment for the real economy investment. |
文章编号 | WP999 |
登载时间 | 2015-12-22 |
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