“东亚模式”的启迪与中国经济增长“结构之谜”的揭示 阅读全文
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Title | The Enlightenment of East Asian Model and Revelation of the Structural Myth of China’s Economic Growth
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作者 | 陶新宇 靳涛 杨伊婧 |
Author | Tao Xinyu,Jin Tao and Yang Yijing |
作者单位 | 厦门大学经济学院 |
Organization | Institute of Economics,Xiamen University |
作者Email | 854260065@qq.com;18959284581@126.com |
中文关键词 | 结构之谜 经济增长 “倒U”型曲线 |
Key Words | Structural Myth; Economic Growth; “Inverted U” Type Curve |
内容提要 | “东亚模式”经历了“结构性加速”与“结构性减速”的整个过程,“中国模式”与“东亚模式”是否殊途同归?本文基于“东亚模式”发展历程的整体评价,结合中国的现实通过结构剖析来揭示中国经济的发展演进脉络。在整体分析的基础上,再通过与日本和韩国在人口结构、投资消费结构、外贸结构、产业结构以及收入结构上比较,进一步透视中国经济的可行性空间。进一步,参照东亚国家的经验,本文针对中国经济增长的“结构之谜”通过主成分分析将5个经济结构指标合成为结构指数,从更为微观的层面分别研究不同规模地级市的结构指数以及5个单独的经济结构指标对经济增长的影响。研究表明,合成的结构指数与经济增长呈现出“倒U”型曲线的关系,但不同规模地级市处于“倒U”型曲线的不同阶段。此外,5个经济结构单独对经济增长的影响也都不尽相同。最后,对调结构提出积极的建议。 |
Abstract | The East Asian countries have experienced a whole process of “structural acceleration” and “structural slowdown”. Are “China model” and “East Asian model” all roads leading to Rome? On the basis of the overall evaluation of the development of “East Asian model”, we, combined with China’s reality, reveal the evolution of China’s economic development. Then, by comparing with Japan and South Korea in the structure of population, investment and consumption, foreign trade, industry, and income, we draw a further perspective of the feasibility of China’s economic space. Furthermore, referring to the experience of east Asian countries, we synthesize five economic structural indices into a structural index by principal component analysis, and from a more micro level, empirically study the influence of the structural index and five economic structure’s impact on economic growth across prefecture-level cities at different scale level. Research shows that the economic structure and economic growth present a “inverted U” type curve, but cities at different scale level are at different stages of “inverted U” type curve. In addition, five separate economic structure’s impact on economic growth are also different. Finally, we make positive suggestions on structural adjustment. |
文章编号 | WP993 |
登载时间 | 2015-12-18 |
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