资产价格错位与货币政策规则——基于修正Q理论的重新审视
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| Title | Asset Price Misalignments and Monetary Rules——A Re-examination Based on Modified Tobin's Q Theory
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| 作者 | 刘金全 徐宁 刘达禹 |
| Author | Liu Jinquan, Xu Ning and Liu Dayu |
| 作者单位 | 吉林大学 |
| Organization | Jilin University |
| 作者Email | liuyuchris@163.com |
| 中文关键词 | 资产价格 货币政策规则 基本面Q值 |
| Key Words | Asset Price; Monetary Policy Rule; Fundamental Q Value. |
| 内容提要 | 一直以来，有关“名义利率调整→资产价值修复→实体经济复苏”这一政策传导渠道有效性的探讨就是学术界与政策制定者关注的焦点。有鉴于此，本文首先对经典的“托宾Q”理论进行修正，将资产的基础价值与投机价值进行分离，继而将含有资产基础价值的前瞻性利率规则引入至DSGE分析框架，并对这一问题展开必要探讨。研究结果表明：名义利率调整能够有效促进资产价值修复进而拉动实体经济复苏；而近期我国呈现出资本市场活跃但实体经济复苏缓慢的根本原因则在于实体经济周期与金融周期的错配；此外，我们仍不应忽视资产价格巨幅波动给金融体系稳定性带来的不利影响，因此在未来一定时期内的货币政策使用上，货币当局应高度重视事前的政策疏导，以防投资者对中央银行的政策调整进行过度解读，从而在发挥货币政策良性指引功能的同时维护整个金融体系的安全运转。 |
| Abstract | The validity of "nominal interest rate adjustment→asset value restoration→real economy recovery" has always been a topic among scholars and the policy makers. Based on this, the article makes a correction on the classical Tobin's Q theory, separating the asset's basic value from it's speculative value, and then build a forward looking monetary police rule with asset's basic value under a DEGE framework to make a necessary discussion. The results show that nominal interest rate adjustment has a prominent effect on promoting asset value restoration, and then pulls real economy recovery. And the main cause of capital market going active with the real economy recovering slow at this stage is the mismatch between the real business cycle and the financing cycle. However, we should also not ignore the negative impact of huge asset price volatility on financial stability. Therefore, the monetary authorities should pay high attention to policy guidance beforehand, preventing the investors from making excessive policy interpretation, so that we can play the positive guidance function of monetary policy and maintain financial stability at the same time. |
| 文章编号 | WP989 |
| 登载时间 | 2015-12-15 |
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