国际油价波动与中国制造业企业的成长表现
阅读全文
下载全文 |
| Title | Crude Oil Price Fluctuation and the Performance of Chinese Manufacturing Firms
|
| 作者 | 程冬 郑文平 俞剑 |
| Author | Cheng Dong, Zheng Wenping and Yu Jian |
| 作者单位 | 范德比尔特大学经济系；中国人民大学经济学院；央财经大学经济学院 |
| Organization | Vanderbilt University; Renmin University of China; Central University of Finance and Economics |
| 作者Email | dong.cheng@vanderbilt.edu；wenpingzheng@ruc.edu.cn；yujianjh@ruc.edu.cn |
| 中文关键词 | 油价波动；筛选效应；生产效率；面板向量自回归；融资约束 |
| Key Words | Oil Price Shock; Sorting Effect; Firm Productivity; PVAR; Financial Credits |
| 内容提要 | 油价波动已成为经济发展的不稳定因子，但鲜有文献考察油价波动影响企业成长表现的微观传导机制。利用1999-2006年国际油价波动和中国制造业企业数据，本文采用面板数据回归和面板向量自回归方法考察了油价波动对企业成长表现的静态影响与动态冲击。研究发现：油价波动对中国整体制造业企业的成长表现（包括生产效率、销售额和从业人员）都有负面影响，而且生产效率在油价剧烈波动期的平均实际下降幅度高达28%至44%。油价波动对公有制和私有制企业的生产效率有短期的正面和负面影响，表明油价波动对不同所有制企业的生产效率有“筛选效应”。本文还发现，私有制企业比公有制企业更能有效利用金融资源去抵御油价波动。当企业内部或外部融资状况改善后，私有制企业因财务状况好转而提高的生产效率平均比公有制企业高出约23%。 |
| Abstract | We primarily explore the static and dynamic impacts of fluctuations in crude oil prices on the performance of Chinese manufacturing firms in terms of firm-level productivity and other relevant indexations. The data we rely on are the annual crude oil price and Chinese annual survey of manufacturing sector conducted by the National Bureau of Statistics over the period 1999-2006. The panel-data regression and panel-data vector auto-regression (PVAR) reveal that the oil price shock generated significantly negative impacts on Chinese overall manufacturing sector with respect to firm-level productivity, sales, and employment. The firm productivity could have been dropped on average 28%-44% due to this exogenous shock. We also find remarkable sorting effect as for firms of different ownerships: the oil price shock produced a positive impact on Chinese state-owned manufactures while a negative one on private-owned plants. Employing a panel-data difference-in-differences estimation approach, we further unveil the sorting effect in the efficiency of using financial resources in counteracting the negative oil price shock for Chinese manufactures. It shows that: the improvement in internal and external finance could have on average increase 23% more for the productivity of the private-owned firms. |
| 文章编号 | WP985 |
| 登载时间 | 2015-12-11 |
|