现金流不确定性与企业创新
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| Title | Cash-flow Uncertainty and Corporate Innovation
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| 作者 | 刘波 李志生 王泓力 杨金强 |
| Author | Liu Bo,Li Zhisheng,Wang Hongli and Yang Jinqiang |
| 作者单位 | 电子科技大学；中南财经政法大学；上海财经大学 |
| Organization | University of Electronic Science and Technology of China; Zhongnan University of Economics and Law; Shanghai University of Finance and Economics |
| 作者Email | B.Liu07@Fulbrightmail.org； |
| 中文关键词 | 现金流不确定性，赢家效应，融资摩擦，研发策略，资助效应，预防效应 |
| Key Words | Cash-flow Uncertainty; Winner’s Advantage; Market Friction; R&D Strategy; Funding Effect; Precautionary Effect |
| 内容提要 | 本文拓展了现有研究框架，结合创新型行业中的赢家效应和融资摩擦，研究了复杂环境下企业在创新研发投入与现金持有之间的最优权衡及现金流不确定性对企业创新决策及定价的影响。研究发现，在赢家效应较强时，企业着眼于现金流不确定性所带来的“机遇”，“资助效应”占主导地位从而刺激企业进行较为激进的创新研发，此时现金流不确定性会提升企业价值；反之，在赢家效应较弱时，企业更注重现金流不确定性所带来的“风险”，“预防效应”占主导地位从而促使企业进行更为保守的创新研发，此时，现金流不确定性会降低企业价值。特别地，在融资约束附近，现金流的边际效用很大，现金流的不确定性会显著减小企业外部融资的概率，缓解融资约束并提升企业价值。此外，融资摩擦的存在可能会使现金流的不确定性对创新策略及企业价值产生更加复杂的影响。在我国实施创新驱动发展战略的大背景下，本文为创新型行业如何有效地管理现金流不确定性，合理地进行创新研发决策提供了重要的理论依据。 |
| Abstract | We extend the extant framework by integrating the characteristics of winner’s advantage and market friction in innovative industry, and investigate the innovative firm’s optimal tradeoff between R&D and cash holding, and explore the impact of cash-flow uncertainty on innovative firm’s R&D strategy and firm value. The results indicate that, when winner’s advantage is strong, innovative firm focuses on the “opportunity” side of cash-flow uncertainty, and the “funding effect” dominates to spur more aggressive R&D, and finally the cash-flow uncertainty increases the firm value. On the contrary, when winner’s advantage is weak, innovative firm reinforces the “risk” side of cash-flow uncertainty, and the “precautionary effect” dominates to push the innovative firm to cut R&D, and finally the cash-flow uncertainty decrease the firm value. Specifically, the marginal utility of cash flow is large around the financial constraints boundary, and the cash-flow uncertainty will significantly mitigate the financial constraint and increase the firm value. In addition, the existence of market friction could make the cash-flow uncertainty cast more complicated effect upon innovative firm’s R&D strategy and firm value. In the context of China's implementation of innovation-driven development strategy, this paper provides important theoretical basis for innovative firms’ effective management of cash flow uncertainty and reasonable R&D decisions. |
| 文章编号 | WP964 |
| 登载时间 | 2015-11-24 |
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