我国经济“调整周期”中增长结构的偏倚性——基于行业替代弹性的研究
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| Title | Structural Bias of Our Economic Growth at Business Cycles: Based on Substitution Elasticity among Industries
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| 作者 | 魏强 樊纲 |
| Author | Wei Qiang and Fan Gang |
| 作者单位 | 北京大学 |
| Organization | Chinese Academy of Social Sciences |
| 作者Email | wq168168@pku.edu.cn;fangang@neri.org.cn |
| 中文关键词 | 结构主义 增长偏倚 替代弹性 周期调整 |
| Key Words | Structuralism; Growth Bias; Substitution Elasticity; Business cycles |
| 内容提要 | 经济周期性波动是市场规律调整的正常现象，也是长期增长趋势的组成部分。支持经济增长的既有“快变量”，也有“慢变量”。本文通过构建一般均衡模型分析表明，当行业之间的替代弹性小于1时，最终产出的增速是由增长最慢的行业所决定的；而实证分析发现我国当前主要行业之间之间的替代弹性均大于0小于1。因此，在当前经济周期的低迷阶段，过去宏观政策重点关注主导产业或者上下游关联产业的政策思路应该有所转变，可以借鉴“木桶原理”的思想，稳住经济增长的短板，保持经济结构平衡增长，才能协调好短期波动和长期可持续增长的问题，推动国民经济持续健康发展。 |
| Abstract | Economic fluctuations are not only the normal phenomena conform to market discipline but also the crucial parts of economic growth. This paper constructs a general equilibrium model with constant elasticity of substitution among industries. The theoretical analysis shows that the growth of aggregate output would be determined by the industry that is growing more slowly when the elasticity is less than 1. Empirical research shows that the substitution elasticity among our industries is between 0 and 1. Therefore, the policy implication of this paper is that in order to maintain sustained an healthy development of the national economy, it is important to stabilize "the short board" and balance economic structure. |
| 文章编号 | WP963 |
| 登载时间 | 2015-11-24 |
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