农业生产率进步，劳动力转移与工农业联动发展——中国经济奇迹的农业起源
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| Title | Agricultural productivity, labor migration, and agriculture-industry co-development
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| 作者 | 徐建国 张勋 |
| Author | Jianguo Xu and Xun Zhang |
| 作者单位 | 北京大学国家发展研究院；北京师范大学国民核算研究院 |
| Organization | (1. National School of Development, Peking University.2. School of Statistics, Beijing Normal University.3. Shanghai Finance Institute |
| 作者Email | zhangxun@bnu.edu.cn |
| 中文关键词 | 农业生产率；劳动力转移；资本回报率；农业与工业化 |
| Key Words | Agricultural Productivity; Labor Migration; Capital Return; Agriculture and Industrialization |
| 内容提要 | 本文探讨农业生产率进步在中国经济增长中的作用。为此，本文建立了两部门动态一般均衡模型。模型中，农业生产率的提高释放的劳动力向非农部门转移，促进非农部门的发展；非农部门的进步又为农业技术进步提供了条件，反过来促进农业生产率的进一步提高，并促进农业劳动力的进一步转移，从而形成农业部门与非农部门的联动发展。实证分析发现了支持工农业联动发展的证据。本文的分析为理解我国的经济奇迹，提供了一个视角，对其他国家实现经济起飞和内生发展具有启发意义。目前，我国农业生产率依然较低，农业人口占比依然很大，联动效应的作用空间依然显著，政策层面应该继续因势利导，推进土地和户籍制度改革，发挥工农业联动效应，培育进一步经济增长潜力。 |
| Abstract | We study China’s economic growth from the perspective of agricultural productivity improvement，rural-urban migration, and agricultural-industrial co-development. Toward this end, we develop a two-sector dynamic general equilibrium model. In the model, productivity improvement in the agricultural sector releases excess labor to the industrial sector, which promotes latter’s development and capital deepening. Capital deepening in the industrial sector further improves agricultural productivity and stimulates more labor migration to the industrial sector. Empirical analysis finds supportive evidence for this co-development effect. This paper provides a new perspective on understanding China economic miracle. It also casts light on how an underdeveloped economy can achieve endogenous and sustainable economic development. The policy implication is that China should reform land tenure and the household registration (hukou) system to facilitate the agricultural-industrial co-development effect and foster future growth potential. |
| 文章编号 | WP926 |
| 登载时间 | 2015-09-30 |
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