后高速增长期经济波动的福利成本 阅读全文
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Title | Welfare Cost of Economic Fluctuations during after High Speed Development Period
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作者 | 张耿 |
Author | Zhang Keng |
作者单位 | 上海外国语大学 |
Organization | Shanghai International Studies University |
作者Email | js@drc.gov.cn |
中文关键词 | 经济波动 福利成本 转型经济 |
Key Words | Economic Fluctuations; Welfare Cost; Transitional Economy |
内容提要 | 本文测算了中国经济波动的福利成本,并对转型期经济波动进行了跨国跨期分析:1、中国经济波动的福利成本相当大,不支持卢卡斯论断,而美国经济波动的福利成本支持卢卡斯论断,即经济波动不具有重要的福利价值;2、中美之间的福利成本差异并非特例,而是具有一般性意义,发展中国家的经济波动整体上位于“具有重要福利价值”的区间,发达国家的经济波动整体上位于“不具有重要福利价值”区间;3、当高速增长期结束后,各国经济增速的下降幅度都相当可观,同时经济波动的福利成本也有所下降,但这一阶段的经济波动仍然不支持卢卡斯论断。本文的研究表明转型期的阶段性社会环境条件是理解、分析我国经济波动时不可忽视的因素。 |
Abstract | The article estimates the welfare cost of Chinese economic fluctuations and analyses transnational intertemporal data during transitional period. 1. The welfare cost of Chinese economic fluctuations is larger than that of American economic fluctuations, which implies that Lucas judgement is not supported in China. 2. The difference in welfare cost between China and America has its general implication. Totally speaking, welfare cost of economic fluctuations in developing countries is important, meanwhile that in developed countries is not important. 3. When the first rapid growth period is ended, welfare cost of economic fluctuations will go down. However, Lucas judgement is not supported yet for the new period. These findings imply that fully understanding social environment of transitional economy is important for analyzing Chinese economic fluctuations. |
文章编号 | WP924 |
登载时间 | 2015-09-22 |
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