中国参与全球价值链分工的程度及演变趋势——基于跨国投入—产出分析
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| Title | China’s Integration into the Global Value Chains: A Transnational Input-Output Analysis
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| 作者 | 程大中 |
| Author | Cheng Dazhong |
| 作者单位 | 复旦大学 |
| Organization | Department of World Economy and Institute for World Economy, Fudan University |
| 作者Email | chengdz@fudan.edu.cn |
| 中文关键词 | 全球价值链 跨国投入-产出表 投入-产出分析 中国经济 |
| Key Words | Global Value Chains (GVCs); Transnational Input-Output Table; Input-Output Analysis; Chinese Economy |
| 内容提要 | 本文通过跨国投入-产出分析从中间品关联、增加值关联、投入-产出关联三个角度综合评估了中国参与全球价值链分工的程度以及演变趋势。研究发现，中国“入世”之后以进口中间品比重衡量与世界的中间品关联程度先升后降，而中国生产的产品所含外国增加值比重则趋于上升；以外国增加值含量衡量的中国参与全球价值链的程度高于以进口中间品比重衡量的程度。中国与美国、日本、韩国、中国台湾、德国在中间品和增加值方面的关联程度较高；但从趋势看，中国与美国、德国的关联程度在上升，与日本、韩国、中国台湾的关联程度在下降。中国大多数行业倾向于从较高收入水平的经济体进口较多的增加值，也倾向于向较高收入水平的经济体出口较多的增加值。中国大多数行业基于产出和投入的价值链关联指数均超过1.5，关联指数上升的行业远多于下降的行业；中国的这两项指数都高于美国，表明中国已经通过产出供给和投入需求两个渠道非常深入地融入全球价值链和产业链。本文的研究为思考如何提升中国在全球价值链和产业链分工中的地位提供了实证基础，同时也为中国在有效推进区域经济一体化进程中如何进行经济伙伴与行业结构布局提供了决策参考。 |
| Abstract | Drawing upon the transnational input-output analysis, this paper quantifies the status quo and dynamics of Chinese integration into the global value chains (GVCs) via intermediate, value-added and input-output linkages. We find that since the accession into WTO, China’s intermediate import ratio falls after rise, while the foreign value-added contents in China’s products and services tend to increase. For China, the value-added-based GVCs integration is stronger than the intermediate-based one. China has much closer linkages with the US, Japan, Korea, Chinese Taiwan and Germany if measured by intermediate and value-added, but such linkages with the US and Germany are on the rise while those with Japan, Korea and Chinese Taiwan tend to drop. Most of Chinese sectors tend to import more value added and also export more value added to economies with higher income. For most of Chinese sectors, the output- and input-based linkage indices are above 1.5 and even higher than those of corresponding sectors in the US, and moreover most sectors have experienced a growth in these two linkages. This shows that China has already deeply integrated into the GVCs through output supply and input demand channels. This paper not only provides an empirical foundation for reflecting on how to upgrade China’s location in the GVCs, but also offers policy suggestions for China optimizing the arrangement of economies and sectors when effectively promoting regional economic integration. |
| 文章编号 | WP923 |
| 登载时间 | 2015-09-22 |
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