选择国内并购还是跨境并购？——基于生产潜力、市场择时、外国竞争的视角
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| Title | Choose Domestic M&A or Cross-border M&A？
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| 作者 | 刘莉亚 何彦林 |
| Author | Liu Liya and He Yanlin |
| 作者单位 | 上海财经大学金融学院 |
| Organization | School of Finance, Shanghai University of Finance and Economics |
| 作者Email | liuliya@mail.shufe.edu.cn；minbadly_he@yeah.net |
| 中文关键词 | 生产潜力 市场择时 并购 外国直接投资 |
| Key Words | Production Potential, Market Timing, M&A, Foreign Direct Investment |
| 内容提要 | 随着中国并购政策从微观层面逐渐放开，如何从宏观层面对并购进行调控迫切需要详细研究宏观经济变动对总体并购的影响机制问题。本文基于企业国内并购与跨境并购在微观决策方面的差异性，构建了一国并购完成数量的宏观决定模型，以此揭示目标企业的生产潜力、收购方的市场择时和外国并购资本竞争对并购的决定问题。在此基础上，本文利用中国2001年至2013年的并购数据进行了实证检验。研究结果表明：大部分宏观经济变量对国内并购和跨境并购的影响都显著不同。工资、税负和市场规模对两类并购的作用效果完全相反，股市增长和较低的贷款成本对总体并购起到推动作用，外国并购资本只对国内并购具有较强的竞争作用。最后，本文从宏观层面提出了相应的政策建议。 |
| Abstract | With China’s M&A policy gradually relaxing from the micro level, how to control M&A from the macro level need urgently to know the mechanism of how macroeconomic variables affect overall M&A.Based on the difference between domestic and cross-border M&A in acquiring company’s micro decision, we build a macro decision model of domestic and cross-border M&As’ completed numbers of a country; and through the model we can research the effect of production potential,aquirer’s market timing and foreign M&A capital to domestic companys’ M&A activity. Then we empirically test the model’s predictions using China’s M&A quarterly data from year 2001 to year 2013.The results prove that, most of the macroeconomic variables have the different effect on domestic and cross-border M&A.The wage, tax rate and market scale have the opposite effect to the two types of M&A; the rising stock market and decreased loan rate play the role on promoting M&A, and foreign M&A capital is a strong competitor to domestic M&A.In the end, we put forward the corresponding policy recommendations from the macro level for China. |
| 文章编号 | WP900 |
| 登载时间 | 2015-07-14 |
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