产业链贸易与经济周期的联动：国际规律及中国经验
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| Title | On-chain Trade and Business Cycle Co-movement: the world Regularity and Chinese Experience
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| 作者 | 潘文卿 娄莹 文一 |
| Author | Pan Wenqing, Lou Ying and Wen Yi |
| 作者单位 | 清华大学经济管理学院 |
| Organization | School of Economics & Management, Tsinghua University |
| 作者Email | panwq@sem.tsinghua.edu.cn；louy.11@sem.tsinghua.edu.cn；wenyi@sem.tsinghua.edu.cn |
| 中文关键词 | 产业链贸易 产业内贸易 经济周期联动性 WIOD |
| Key Words | on-chain trade intra-industry trade business cycle co-movement WIOD |
| 内容提要 | 本文首次采用国际投入产出表的大样本数据库（WIOD），对产业链贸易对国家间经济周期的联动性作用特征进行了全方位考察，并对中国的现实经验进行了较为深入的讨论。结果表明：（1）产业链贸易显著影响着双边经济周期的联动性，并且放大了双边贸易的FR效应；（2）从全球范围看，产业内贸易也是影响国际经济周期联动性的一个重要因素，它对产业链贸易的影响也具有“放大”功能；（3）经济距离、贸易对象等也都是影响贸易传导作用的重要因素；（4）中国的现实表现与国际规律基本一致，产业链贸易是联系中国与其贸易伙伴国间经济周期联动的重要贸易形式，它不仅独立地影响着双边经济周期的联动性，而且对双边贸易的FR效应也具有“放大”作用，但产业内贸易的作用并不显著；（5）将中国的主要贸易伙伴进一步分为亚太地区与欧美等其他地区两大类后，发现中国与亚太地区的贸易主导了中国同其贸易伙伴国间的经济联动性。 |
| Abstract | This paper investigates the role of on-chain trade integration in influencing business cycle co-movements both across the world and China and its trade partners based on the WIOD database. The main findings are as follows: (1) the so-called FR effects do exist and on-chain trade not only leads to higher business cycle synchronization but also amplifies FR effects; (2) there is a positive link between intra-industry trade and business cycle co-movement to the extent of the whole world; (3) economic distance and trade partners are also important factors influencing FR effects; (4) China’s reality is consistent with the world’s regularity: on-chain trade influence the business cycle co-movements between China and other countries and amplifies FR effects, except that the influence of intra-industry trade is not significant; (5) on-chain trade between China and Asian countries is the major factor in explaining business cycle co-movements between China and other countries. |
| 文章编号 | WP899 |
| 登载时间 | 2015-07-14 |
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