| Abstract | Taking China’s provincial panel data and national panel data of OECD and BRICKS as sample, this paper simulates and analyzes the potential direct effect and comprehensive effect of carbon emissions trading (carbon trading) in China under the condition of unconstrained and constrained national conditions respectively based on the methods of Stochastic Frontier Analysis, Difference-in-differences Model, Counterfactual Analysis and Nonlinear Programming Technique. The results are as follows: (1) As the theoretical basis of carbon trading, the shadow price of carbon dioxide is inclined to rise generally, and shows a non-linear negative correlation between carbon dioxide emissions; in different regions, the shadow price of carbon dioxide shows a degressive structure in East, Middle, and West China, and the gaps between and in regions are inclined to be divergent. (2) Study of international data shows that carbon trading will result in significant “Porter Hypothesis” effect, which will improve the growth rate of technology and technology efficiency to rise by 0.72 and 0.19 percent respectively. (3) Setting the reduction of national carbon intensity to the greatest degree as the aim, under the condition of the given national GDP, the direct effect of carbon trading can reduce carbon intensity by 20.06%, and when taking “Porter Hypothesis” into consideration, the comprehensive effect can reduce it by 24.61%. If the rigid constraint of national GDP is relaxed, and the constraint of economic growth and environment protection of each regions is imposed, direct effect of carbon trading can reduce carbon intensity by 22.20%, and the comprehensive effect is 27.06%. (4) General carbon intensity of China in 2012 is hovering around the stage goal of the commitment made in Copenhagen Conference and the “Twelfth Five Year” National Economy Plan, and when introducing the provincial trade of carbon emissions, not only the reducing process of carbon intensity can be improved, but also the general requirements of the both can be met. The study above provides technical support with realistic significance to the government for carrying out the deployment of national carbon trading market. |