出口还是进口？——“新常态”下中国对外贸易战略的新思考
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| Title | To Export or not to Import:The New Idea of China's Foreign Trade Strategy under the "New Normal"
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| 作者 | 龚刚 李炳念 徐文舸 |
| Author | Gong Gang,Li Bingnian and Xu Wenge |
| 作者单位 | 云南财经大学金融研究院；天津财经大学 |
| Organization | Yunnan University of Finance and Economics；Tianjin University of Finance and Economics |
| 作者Email | gonggang@vip.163.com；libingnian@163.com；xuwenge_nk@163.com |
| 中文关键词 | 新常态 贸易战略转型 经济增长 人民币国际化 |
| Key Words | New Normal; Transformation of Foreign Trade Strategy; Economic Growth; RMB Internationalization |
| 内容提要 | 出口导向是过去三十多年中国对外贸易战略的基本模式。在一个需求决定型的经济社会中，追求出口和贸易顺差无疑会促进经济增长。然而，当中国经济步入“新常态”之后，中国将逐步转向供给决定型经济。在供给决定型经济下，出口和贸易顺差将抑制经济增长，而进口和贸易逆差则因缓解资源的紧缺而促进经济增长。为此，我们提出“新常态”下中国对外贸易战略应逐步向进口导向转型，即追求贸易逆差。然而，长期的贸易逆差一般不可持续，除非用人民币购买进口。于是，中国对外贸易战略的转型要求中国对外货币战略——人民币国际化——的支撑。进一步的研究发现，以周边国家为目标用人民币大量进口和直接投资是促进人民币周边区域国际化的重要举措，即进口导向的贸易战略将反哺助推人民币国际化。 |
| Abstract | Export-led strategy is the basic paradigm of China's foreign trade strategy over the past thirty years. In a demand-determined economy, exports and the trade surplus will undoubtedly promote economic growth. However, when the Chinese economy has entered the "new normal" state, the China will gradually shift from the demand-determined economy to the supply-determined economy. In the supply-determined economy, exports and the trade surplus will curb economic growth, while imports and the trade deficit will ease the shortage of resources and promote economic growth. To this end, we propose that China's foreign trade strategy should be gradually the import-led strategy under the "new normal" state, i.e. the pursuit of trade deficit. However, the long-term deficit is generally not sustainable unless using the renminbi to settle imports. Thus, the transformation of China's foreign trade strategy requires the support of RMB strategy, namely RMB internationalization. Further, we find that imports and direct investments by RMB in the neighboring countries are an important measure to promote the RMB regional internationalization, which the import-led trade strategy in turn will boost the RMB internationalization. |
| 文章编号 | WP870 |
| 登载时间 | 2015-05-12 |
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