区域经济格局变化对中国碳排放的影响
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| Title | Impact of Changes in Regional Economic Pattern on Carbon Emissions in China
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| 作者 | 张友国 |
| Author | Zhang Youguo |
| 作者单位 | 中国社会科学院数量经济与技术经济研究所 |
| Organization | Institute of Quantitative & Technical Economics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences |
| 作者Email | Zhyouguo@cass.org.cn |
| 中文关键词 | 区域经济格局 碳排放 多区域投入产出模型 空间结构分解 |
| Key Words | Regional economic pattern; carbon emissions; multi-regional input-output model; spatial structural decomposition |
| 内容提要 | 本文基于多区域投入产出模型建立了空间结构分解方法，并将之用于分析2002年至2030年省际层面经济格局变化对中国碳排放的影响。研究结果表明，在整个研究时期内东部地区的碳排放量和碳排放效率都显著高于其他地区，但其碳排放份额将持续下降。各省经济增长带来的规模效应始终主导着中国碳排放的变化，而技术进步则一直是最重要的碳减排因素。2002年至2010年最终需求和中间投入的地区结构变化总体上不利于减缓碳排放，且这一趋势在研究时期内将延续下去。最终需求分配结构和部门结构变化在2010年以前导致碳排放增加，但未来很可能成为重要的碳减排因素。因此，进一步加强技术进步、合理设定区域碳排放目标以及优化最终需求的分配结构和部门结构是中国尽早实现碳排放峰值的重要途径。 |
| Abstract | This paper establishes a spatial structural decomposition method based on multi-regional input-output model and applies it to analyze the impact of changes in regional economic pattern at the provincial level on carbon emissions in China in 2020-2030. The results indicate that the carbon emissions and carbon efficiency in the eastern region are obviously higher than those in other regions but the share of eastern region in total carbon emissions will decrease steadily in the whole studied period. The scale effect caused by provincial economic growth always dominant the change in carbon emissions in China while the technological progress is always the most important factor for reducing carbon emissions. The changes in regional structures of final demand and intermediate input are not good for reduction carbon emissions in 2002-2010 and this trend will extend in the whole period. The changes in allocation and sector structures of final demand increase carbon emissions before 2010 but they will be important factors for carbon mitigating in the future. Therefore, further enforcing technological progress, reasonably setting regional targets of carbon emissions and optimizing the allocation and sector structures of final demand are important approaches for earlier reaching the summit of carbon emissions in China. |
| 文章编号 | WP856 |
| 登载时间 | 2015-04-03 |
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