加工贸易、人民币汇率和产品附加值：理论及实证研究
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| Title | Processing Trade, RMB Exchange Rate and Domestic Value-added: Theoretical and Empirical Analysis
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| 作者 | 余淼杰 崔晓敏 |
| Author | Yu Miaojie and Cui Xiaomin |
| 作者单位 | 北京大学国家发展研究院 |
| Organization | National School of Development, Peking University |
| 作者Email | mjyu@nsd.pku.edu.cn，sunnylizzie@163.com |
| 中文关键词 | 加工贸易 人民币汇率 国内附加值比 |
| Key Words | Processing Trade; RMB Exchange Rate; Domestic Value-added Ratio |
| 内容提要 | 改革开放以来，我国对外贸易突飞猛进，出口的国内附加值逐步提升，在全球价值链上的地位持续攀升。本文拓展了Rodríguez-López（2011）和Kee & Tang（2013）的理论模型，建立了汇率变动影响加工贸易企业国内附加值比的理论模型。根据我们的模型，本币贬值将通过两个渠道导致本国加工贸易企业的国内附加值比提升。第一，本币贬值导致加工贸易企业进口下降，出口增加，国内附加值比提升；第二，本币贬值导致加工贸易企业出口价格加成提高，利润率提高，国内附加值比提升。文章用2000-2009年中国工业企业和海关产品层面贸易数据对理论结果进行了实证分析。研究表明按初始年进口份额加权的名义有效汇率提高10%（即本币贬值10%），加工贸易企业的国内附加值比将提高0.58%。 |
| Abstract | This paper extends the theoretical model of Rodríguez-López（2011）and Kee & Tang（2013）, to analyze the effect of exchange rate on the domestic value-added ratio（DVAR）of processing firm. Exchange rate changes have two effects on processing firms’ DVARs. First, the depreciation of Home currency increases processing firms’ DVARs, through increasing export and decreasing import. Second, the depreciation of Home currency leads to an increase of export price markup, which enlarges exporters’ output and input ratio, leading to higher DVARs. This paper uses the merged data of firm-level and product-level trade data to test the relationship between processing firms’ DVARs and RMB exchange rate. The estimation results support the theoretical expectation. That is, if firm-level nominal effective exchange rate weighted by import share in the initial year increases 10 percent or Home currency depreciates 10 percent, processing firms’ DVARs would improve 0.58 percent. |
| 文章编号 | WP847 |
| 登载时间 | 2015-03-27 |
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