通货膨胀目标制是否有效?——来自合成控制法的新证据 阅读全文
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Title | Is Inflation Targeting Effective?——New Evidence from the Synthetic Control Methods
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作者 | 苏治 胡迪 |
Author | Su Zhi and Hu Di |
作者单位 | 中央财经大学 |
Organization | School of Statistics and Mathematics, Central University of Finance and Economics |
作者Email | suzhi1218@163.com;hudi0317@163.com |
中文关键词 | 通货膨胀目标制;合成控制法;货币政策;经济稳定 |
Key Words | Inflation Targeting; Synthetic Control; Monetary Policy; Economic stability |
内容提要 | 通货膨胀目标制(Inflation Targeting,IT)是一项追求长期价格稳定的货币政策框架,目前被二十多个国家采用。学界对通货膨胀目标制是否有效至今存在分歧。以往的政策评价方法可能存在样本选择偏误及政策内生性问题,本文应用一种较新的非实验评估方法——合成控制法对51个新兴国家1980年至2012年的通货膨胀率进行了研究,评估了IT对新兴市场国家通货膨胀率的影响。结果显示:合成控制法通过对多个控制对象加权以模拟目标国政策实施前的情况,比传统方法更为客观地定量评估IT在不同新兴国家的政策效果;IT实施国的通胀率明显低于同期假设其不实施IT时的通胀率,且波动更小,即使在外生冲击下,其通胀增长幅度也明显更窄。目前我国尚不完全具备实施通货膨胀目标制的前提条件,一些新兴国家的成功经验可为我国货币政策框架的完善和货币政策的制定提供借鉴。 |
Abstract | Inflation Targeting is a monetary policy pursuing long-term price stability, and more than 20 countries have adopted this monetary policy. This paper applies a novel non-experimental evaluation approach to examine the question of whether inflation targeting is an effective policy tool in emerging economies. We found that the synthetic control method can overcome the endogenous policy and the bias problem of sample selection, and evaluate the effectiveness of inflation targeting in different countries quantitatively; the inflation targeting can effectively reduce the rate of inflation, keeping the price long-term stable and economic development steady, and even with the exogenous shock, the countries applied inflation targeting got smaller increase of inflation rate. Although at present China does not possess the preconditions for implementing of the inflation targeting, the successful experience of some emerging countries can offer references for our country monetary policy. |
文章编号 | WP844 |
登载时间 | 2015-03-24 |
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