国企改革对经济增速的提振效应研究
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| Title | SOEs Reform’s Impact on Economic Growth
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| 作者 | 许召元 张文魁 |
| Author | Xu Zhaoyuan and Zhang Wenkui |
| 作者单位 | 国务院发展研究中心 |
| Organization | Development Research Centre of the State Council |
| 作者Email | zhaoyuan@drc.gov.cn;wkzhang@drc.gov.cn |
| 中文关键词 | 国企改革 经济增长 CGE模型 |
| Key Words | Development Research Centre of the State Council |
| 内容提要 | 本文研究了国企改革影响经济增长的机制，并在此基础上构建了一个反映中国经济实际情况、且区分了国有和非国有企业的可计算一般均衡模型（CGE），用以模拟考察国企改革对经济增长的影响。本文认为国企改革可以通过提高资本边际产出、改善资本动态配置效率、加快TFP增长率和发挥对其他企业的外部溢出效应等途径提振经济增速。数值模拟结果发现国企改革对经济增长有明显的促进作用：如果每年有5%的国企进行改革，并持续十年，则平均每年约可提高经济增长速度0.33个百分点，如果每年有10%或20%的国企改革，则分别可提高0.47和0.50个百分点左右。国企改革的前期，促进经济增长的途径主要来自于要素配置改善，而后期则主要来自于外部溢出效应。在目前我国面临寻找和发掘经济增长内生动力的时候，以积极稳妥的步伐推进国企产权改革，对于提高经济效率、促进经济持续增长具有重要意义。 |
| Abstract | This paper investigates how the Stated Owned Enterprises(SOEs) reform influences economic growth, and constructs a Computable General Equilibrium model which reflecting Chinese economic characteristics, separating the production from SOEs or not SOEs, to estimate SOEs reform’s impact on economic growth. We find that SOEs reform can enhance economic growth through raising marginal output of capital, improving allocation efficiency of capital, increasing TFP growth rate and exerting the spillover effect on other firms. Results of numerical simulation show that economic growth rate benefits significantly from SOEs reform: If every 5% of the SOEs are reformed year by year in the next 10 years, the economic growth rate can averagely raise 0.33 percentage point every year; and the yearly average raise of the economic growth goes separately to 0.47 or 0.50 percent point if 10% and 20% of the SOEs are reformed. With the background of searching and exploring endogenous driving force for economic growth, promoting SOEs' reform steadily and actively is very important for China to enhancing the economic efficiency and promoting economy growth. |
| 文章编号 | WP819 |
| 登载时间 | 2015-02-06 |
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