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中国信贷供给周期的实际效果:基于公司层面的经验证据
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TitleThe Actual Effects of Credit Supply Cycle in China:Firm Level Evidence  
作者王义中 陈丽芳 宋敏  
AuthorWang Yizhong, Chen Lifang and Frank M. Song  
作者单位浙江大学经济学院;北京大学 
OrganizationZheJiang University;Peking University 
作者Emailwangyizhong@zju.edu.cn;lifangchen1991@163.com;fmsong@econ.hku.hk 
中文关键词信贷供给;融资需求;公司投资;货币政策 
Key Wordscredit supply; financing purpose; Corporate investment; monetary policy 
内容提要信贷供给周期先影响公司融资目的,然后影响公司融资方式选择。本文以公司融资目的从长期资金需求到流动性资金需求的转变衡量信贷供给周期的影响,运用中国上市公司季度报表数据,经验结果发现,信贷供给周期会显著影响公司在流动性资金需求与长期资金需求之间的替代性选择,信贷紧缩会促使公司增加流动性资金需求而降低长期资金需求,反之亦然。而且,这种替代性选择会影响到公司投资行为,促使公司减少新增投资。该结论不仅突出信贷供给周期的重要性,更强调需求层面的因素在货币政策传导效果中的作用。得到的启示是,注重信贷供给的节奏与信贷能力的变化比仅注重信贷投放的规模更重要;依据微观经济主体融资目的的转变调整信贷供给政策。 
AbstractCredit supply cycle affects the company's financing purposes firstly, then affects the company's financing options. In this paper, we measure the impact of credit supply by the substitution of liquidity needs and long-term funding needs. Using Chinese listed companies quarterly report data and building different proxies for credit supply cycle, we find that credit supply cycle significantly affects the companies’ financing purposes and the credit crunch will reduce the probability of long-term capital requirement. Moreover, this substitution will affect the investment behavior which leads the firms to reduce capital expenditure. This conclusion is not only highlights the importance of credit supply cycle, but more emphasis on the role of demand side factors in the effect of monetary policy transmission. The implication is that it is more important to pay attention to the change of credit capacity and the pace of credit supply than only focusing on the quantity of credit. Moreover, the policy makers may adjust the credit supply based on the financing purposes of firms. 
文章编号WP764 
登载时间2014-11-25 
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