2008年金融危机后中国货币数量论失效研究 阅读全文
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Title | The Breakdown of the Quantity Theory of Money in China after 2008 Financial Crises
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作者 | 陈彦斌 郭豫媚 陈伟泽 |
Author | Chen Yanbin, Guo Yumei and Chen Weize |
作者单位 | 中国人民大学经济学院;波士顿大学 |
Organization | School of Economics, Renmin University of China; Department of Economics, Boston University |
作者Email | cyb@ruc.edu.cn;gym333@126.com;sysu2006vc@126.com |
中文关键词 | 货币数量论 通货膨胀 货币政策 房地产 政府债务 |
Key Words | Quantity Theory of Money; Inflation; Monetary Policy; Housing Sector; Government Deficit |
内容提要 | 2008年金融危机之后,中国货币数量论的失效表现出新特点,高货币投放的宽松货币政策不仅没有引起应有的通货膨胀,而且与房价上涨和政府债务扩张表现出紧密联系。危机后货币数量论的失效究竟是如何形成的?未来是否会恢复有效,其对宏观经济有何影响、对货币政策有何启示?为回答上述问题,本文构建了一个含有房地产部门和地方政府债务的动态一般均衡模型,以研究中国货币数量论失效的形成机理以及货币数量论恢复有效对宏观经济的影响。研究发现,房地产泡沫的膨胀和地方政府债务的扩张会增强家庭和政府的货币持有意愿,使货币流通速度下降并导致通货膨胀率相对降低。同时,模拟实验表明,房地产泡沫的破裂将使货币数量论恢复有效,并推动通货膨胀率上升约0.5个百分点。鉴于此,中国不应继续执行高货币投放的宽松货币政策,而应在保持政策稳健的基础上着力提高存量货币的使用效率。 |
Abstract | After 2008 Financial Crises, the breakdown of the Quantity Theory of Money (QTM) in China displays a new feature that expansionary monetary policy with high money supply has not caused inflation it is supposed to be, while it goes with the soaring housing price and government deficit. How does the breakdown form in deed? Will the QTM revive? What are the macroeconomic impacts and monetary policy implications? To clarify and quantify them, this paper builds up a dynamic general equilibrium model in the presence of housing sector and government deficit. It shows that the booming of housing bubble and government deficit will enhance money demand of households and government, and then lower velocity of money as well as inflation rate. Moreover, the busting of housing bubble will increase inflation rate by 0.5 percents, and make the QTM revival. Therefore, the monetary authority in China should stabilize money supply and improve utilization of money stock, rather than using expansionary policy. |
文章编号 | WP738 |
登载时间 | 2014-10-28 |
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