中国生产侧和消费侧碳排放量及其影响因素——基于MRIO模型的实证研究
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| Title | China's Production and Consumption-Based Carbon Emissions and Their Determinants
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| 作者 | 彭水军 张文城 |
| Author | Peng Shuijun and Zhang Wencheng |
| 作者单位 | 厦门大学经济学院 |
| Organization | XIAMEN UNIVERSITY |
| 作者Email | shuijun_peng@163.com |
| 中文关键词 | 生产侧排放 消费侧排放 贸易转移排放 MRIO模型 SDA方法 |
| Key Words | Production-Based Emissions; Consumption-Based Emissions; Emissions Displacedment through Trade; Multi-Region Input-Output Model; Structural Decomposition Analysis |
| 内容提要 | 本文基于WIOD提供的世界投入产出表序列，采用MRIO模型测算和比较分析了1995-2009年中国生产侧碳排放量和消费侧碳排放量，并通过SDA方法考察了生产侧和消费侧碳排放增长的影响因素。结果发现，研究期间中国生产侧碳排放和消费侧碳排放均出现大幅的增长，但生产侧排放明显高于消费侧排放，“入世”后二者差距呈迅速扩大趋势；中国大量的生产碳排放服务于美、欧、日等发达经济体的最终需求，即存在突出的“发达国家消费与中国污染”问题，而中国消费侧排放主要发生在国内。因此，当前国际气候制度没有考虑贸易的转移排放和消费国责任，而仅仅依据生产侧排放来核算各国碳排放责任对于中国等出口大国无疑是有失公平的。结构分解结果表明，中国生产侧和消费侧碳排放量的快速增加主要是由国内最终需求规模的增长和生产部门投入结构变化带来的；而国内生产部门碳排放强度的下降则是有效抑制中国生产侧和消费侧排放量增加的最主要因素，但这种抑制作用近年来有减弱趋势。此外，中国与其他经济体的前向产业关联、发达经济体和发展中经济体最终需求来源地结构的变化及其需求规模的增长也是导致中国生产侧碳排放增加的主要因素，这意味着参与国际分工的深化和范围的扩大对中国碳排放具有显著拉动效应。 |
| Abstract | This paper estimates China’s production and consumption-based carbon emissions during 1995-2009 based on multi-region input-output model and world input-output database and applies input-output structural decomposition analysis (SDA) technique to investigate relative impact of various factors on their changes. Results show that China’s production and consumption-based carbon emissions increased significantly and production-based emissions were higher than consumption-based emissions in the study period especially after China’s accession to the WTO. Substantial emissions in China’s production-based emissions served final demands of developed countries which shows the phenomenon of ‘consumption in developed countries while pollution in China’. Instead, most of China’s consumption emissions were generated domestically. Therefore, the conventional production-based emission accounting approach used by international climate institutions seems unfair to big exporters like China. Results of SDA show that growth of domestic final demand and change of domestic production structure were two main drivers of China’ production and consumption-based emissions. The change of emissions intensity of production in China greatly offset the increase of production and consumption-based emissions while this buffering effect was weakening during study period. In addition, important drivers of china’s production-based emissions include enhancement of China’s forward international industry linkage, growth of final demands abroad and increase of their production sources in China, which indicates that China’s participation in global production more deeply and extensively during study period had pulling effect on domestic production emissions. |
| 文章编号 | WP737 |
| 登载时间 | 2014-10-21 |
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