技术进步如何影响中国二氧化碳排放——基于反弹效应的实证研究
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| Title | Technology Advance and Carbon-Dioxide Emission in China—Evidence from the Empirical Study on Rebound Effect
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| 作者 | 杨莉莎 林伯强 |
| Author | Lin Boqiang and Yang Lish |
| 作者单位 | 厦门大学经济学院 |
| Organization | Xiamen University |
| 作者Email | frogshasha@foxmail.com；bqlin@xmu.edu.cn |
| 中文关键词 | 技术进步 二氧化碳排放 反弹效应 SML指数 LMDI |
| Key Words | technology advance, carbon-dioxide emission, rebound effect, SML index, LMDI index |
| 内容提要 | 在温室效应日益严峻的形势下，二氧化碳减排已经成为国际共识。目前，推动二氧化碳减排的主要推动力来自于技术进步。考虑到反弹效应的存在，依赖技术进步带来的碳减排需要进一步讨论。一个比较重要的问题在于：如何准确度量技术进步与二氧化碳排放之间的关系。本文将构建基于技术进步的宏观二氧化碳反弹效应研究框架，并将其用于研究中国30个省市二氧化碳排放与技术进步之间的定量关系，同时对该框架中技术进步的定义做了进一步的修正和扩展。最终得到的结果证实了中国宏观经济层面基于技术进步的反弹效应分布在10%~60%之间，同时证实了中国东、中、西部地区二氧化碳反弹效应的区域性差异，论证了现阶段解决中国能源和环境问题需要分区域有步骤地进行。 |
| Abstract | It has become an international consensus on carbon dioxide mitigation under the serious circumstance of the worsening greenhouse effect. At present, technology advance is the greatest contributor to the carbon dioxide mitigation. However, the real effect of technology advance on mitigation is worth further studying due to the existence of rebound effect. A key issue is how to quantify the relationship between technology advance and carbon dioxide emission accurately. This paper figures out a comprehensive and modified framework involving around the rebound effect of carbon emission from the macroeconomic perspective. Using this framework, this paper quantitatively evaluates the relationship between technical change and carbon emission based on the data of 30 provinces in China. It is founded that: (1) the rebound effect is almost 10%~60% in Chinese provinces; (2) the rebound effect of carbon emission differs among the regions in China; (3) energy and environment issues should be solved step by step regionally. |
| 文章编号 | WP736 |
| 登载时间 | 2014-10-21 |
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