罕见灾难风险和我国宏观经济波动
阅读全文
下载全文 |
| Title | Rare Disaster Risk and the Macroeconomic Fluctuation in China
|
| 作者 | 陈国进 晁江锋 武晓利 |
| Author | Chen Guojin, Chao Jiangfeng and Wu Xiaoli |
| 作者单位 | 厦门大学 |
| Organization | Xiamen University |
| 作者Email | gjchenxmu@gmail.com; |
| 中文关键词 | 灾难风险 经济波动 RBC模型 财政政策 |
| Key Words | Rare Disaster Risk; Macroeconomic Fluctuation; RBC Model; Fiscal Policy |
| 内容提要 | 本文构建了包含灾难风险因素的RBC模型,通过区分TFP(全要素生产率)灾难、资本灾难与双重灾难三种灾难形式,分析灾难风险因素对我国经济波动的解释能力,并在此基础上量化灾难事件对宏观经济的影响以及政府财政政策支持对灾后经济复苏的作用。研究发现：(1)含灾难RBC模型能够有效改善无灾难RBC模型对我国宏观经济波动的解释能力,且双重灾难模型对中国经济的解释力要明显优于TFP灾难和资本灾难模型；(2)灾难事件对我国经济的破坏性远大于美国,且对各经济变量的相对破坏程度也与美国相异；(3)适度的政府补贴能够有效削弱宏观经济受灾难冲击的程度,但在缩短灾后宏观经济复苏时间方面的效果并不明显。同时，我们还通过引入偏好冲击与资本调整成本来检验模型的稳健性。 |
| Abstract | We construct a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with rare disaster to quantify the impact of the rare disaster on the macroeconomic fluctuation in China and evaluate the effectiveness of fiscal policy for the economic recovery after the disaster. We decompose the rare disaster into three forms: the TFP disaster, capital disaster and double disaster. We find that: (1) The RBC mode with disaster can explain output and capital volatility better than the RBC model without disaster, and the double disaster model is better than TFP disaster model and capital disaster model to explain the macroeconomic fluctuation; (2) The disaster has more destructive impact for China's economy than the United States; (3) The moderate amount of government subsidies can significantly reduce the destructive effect on macro economy by the disaster, but it hasn’t obvious effect on shorten the time of recovery period after the disaster. We also consider the preference shock and adjustment costs to check the robustness of our conclusions. |
| 文章编号 | WP720 |
| 登载时间 | 2014-09-30 |
|