高税负环境下企业与员工的税负分担——基于东北地区增值税转型的自然实验
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| Title | The tax burden distribution between corporation and employees in a high-tax environment
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| 作者 | 马双 赵唯一 张翔 |
| Author | Ma Shuang, Zhao Weiyi and Zhang Xiang |
| 作者单位 | 西南财经大学 |
| Organization | Southwestern University of Finance and Economics |
| 作者Email | shuangma@swufe.edu.cn；mcjuvence@163.com |
| 中文关键词 | 政策评估 增值税改革 倍差法 动态面板 |
| Key Words | Program evaluation; VAT reform; DID regression; Dynamic panel |
| 内容提要 | 企业税负过重将扭曲企业的行为，进而影响企业尤其是作为经济增长新引擎的民营企业的发展。同时，厘清间接税的税负转嫁，对政府直接税改革以及政府职能转变都有重大意义。借助政策评估的“标杆”方法倍差法（DID），本文以东北地区增值税转型带来的“自然实验”为背景，研究了税收在企业与员工间的分担情况。在论证了DID模型的合理性以及“时间趋势相同”的假设后，本文在动态面板框架下使用了Arellano和Bond（1991）的差分GMM估计和Blundell和Bond（1998）的系统GMM估计方法。结果显示，平均而言东三省受增值税改革政策影响的企业其员工工资增加了约7%，仅辽宁省这一数字更是增加到8.9%，东北增值税转型带来的减税冲击在企业与员工之间实现收益共享。在企业对称反映的假设下，企业必将税负的一部分转嫁给员工。从具体的税负分担比例来看，企业的税收每减少100元将带动43.9元的工资增长，44%的税负被企业转嫁给员工。本文还改变控制组的构成检验了结论的稳健性。 |
| Abstract | Corporations’ decision-making would be distorted by high corporation taxes, furthermore, affecting the healthy development of corporations, especially for those private corporations which have becoming the new engine of economic growth. Meanwhile, identifying and clarifying the distribution of tax burden among productivity factors is rather meaningful for government to properly make tax reforms and soundly transform governmental functions. Based on a natural experiment of value-added tax reform in Dongbei district, this paper applies the benchmarking approach—difference-in-differences (DiD), to examine the tax burden distribution between corporation and employees. After arguing the rationality of DiD model and “the parallel assumption” in details, we use two different estimation techniques in dynamic panel specification—Diff-GMM and Sys-GMM developed by Arellano & Bond (1991) and Blundell & Bond, respectively. We find a significant and positive wage effect of VAT reform in Dongbei district which suggests that wages in post-reform period were on average 7% higher, for Liaoning province only, the number increased to 8.9%, all these facts suggesting tax-cut profit would share between corporation and employees, i.e., labor certainly will bear a substantial burden of the corporation tax. Then we translate this relationship into money value, that is $1 increase in tax will associate with a decline of 0.44$ in wage.We also use different control groups to make our conclusion more robust. |
| 文章编号 | WP669 |
| 登载时间 | 2014-08-26 |
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