债务视角下的经济危机
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| Title | Understanding Economic Crisis from the Debt’s Perspective
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| 作者 | 龚刚 徐文舸 杨光 |
| Author | Gong Gang,Xu WenGe and Yang Guang |
| 作者单位 | 云南财经大学;南开大学经济学院 |
| Organization | Yunnan University of Finance and Economics;NANKAI University |
| 作者Email | gonggang@vip.163.com；xuwenge_nk@163.com；yangg@nankai.edu.cn |
| 中文关键词 | 债务危机 非常规宏观稳定政策 惩罚性救助 宏观动态模型 |
| Key Words | Debt Crisis; Unconventional Stabilization Policy; Punitive Bailout; Macro-Dynamic Model |
| 内容提要 | 按债务率高低，经济的运行可分为两种状态：债务正常状态和债务非正常状态。在债务正常状态下，负债对经济没有反馈作用。但尽管如此，经济的运行对债务却具有反馈作用：在一定的条件下，债务随经济的增长而不断累积扩大，从而使经济体从债务正常状态转向非正常状态。当经济进入债务非正常状态时，高负债开始对经济的运行产生负反馈的作用，并进而导致经济危机。由债务所引发的经济危机通常无法由常规的宏观稳定政策（或凯恩斯需求管理型的宏观经济政策）予以救助，唯有非常规宏观稳定政策才能救经济于危机之中。所谓“非常规宏观稳定政策”本质上就是政府买单，即以政府购买债务的方式消除企业或金融机构的债务。然而，这种类型的宏观稳定政策却有可能产生“动态不一致”和“道德风险”等问题。如果政府买单和救助是必须的，则为了避免“动态不一致”和“道德风险”，政府的买单和救助必须伴随着相应的惩罚。“惩罚性救助”是政府应对债务危机的根本之道。 |
| Abstract | According to the level of debt ratio, an economy can be distinguished in two situations: normal and abnormal state in debt. Under the normal state in debt, the debt has no feedback effect on the economy. Nevertheless, the economic operation has a feedback effect on the debt. That is, under certain condition, the debt can be accumulated continuously along with economic growth. This will make the economy shift from the normal to the abnormal state in debt. When the economy is under the abnormal state in debt, the high debt ratio begins to have a negative feedback effect on the economy, thus leading to the economic crisis. The economic crisis caused by the debt usually cannot be saved by conventional macroeconomic stabilization policy (or Keynesian demand management policy), only unconventional stabilization policy can rescue the economy in crisis. The so-called "unconventional stabilization policy" is essentially the government to pay, that is, the government pays the debt of companies or financial institutions. However, this policy may cause "time inconsistency" and "moral hazard" among other problems. Yet if the bailouts from government are necessary, it must be the "punitive bailouts" in order to avoid the "time inconsistency" and "moral hazard". For government, the “punitive bailouts” is the fundamental way to response to debt crisis. |
| 文章编号 | WP665 |
| 登载时间 | 2014-08-22 |
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