国际货币的全球分布与人民币国际化研究
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| Title | Global distribution of international currencies and RMB internationalization
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| 作者 | 何青 王芳 郭俊杰 庄太量 |
| Author | He Qing,Wang Fang,Guo Junjie and Zhuang Tailiang |
| 作者单位 | 中国人民大学；香港中文大学 |
| Organization | RENMIN UNIVERSITY;The Chinese Universtiy of Hong Kong |
| 作者Email | qinghe@ruc.edu.cn； |
| 中文关键词 | 货币国际化 货币全球分布 重力模型 |
| Key Words | Currency Internationalization; Distribution of International Currency; Gravity Model |
| 内容提要 | 利用1995-2013年间世界主要货币的全球交易分布数据，本文采用重力模型对影响国际货币的地区分布的决定因素进行计量分析。研究结果表明，货币流入国和流出国之间的贸易和资本往来、流入国的经济规模和法律体系，以及两国是否使用共同语言对于国际货币的地区分布有着显著的影响，但是地理距离的作用则不显著。进一步而言，国际货币更集中分布于国际金融中心（如伦敦、纽约等）。依据重力模型的分析结果，本文构造和模拟了人民币作为国际货币的全球分布情况，对当前人民币走出去的战略提出了富有价值的政策建议。 |
| Abstract | This paper analyzes the factors that contribute to the geographical distribution of international currency based on the gravity model by examining a panel data of currency trading from 1995 to 2013. We show that the trade and capital flows between the source and destination country, the economic size and legal system of the destination country, and whether the two countries use a common language play very important roles. However, distance might impose a negative but insignificant effect. Furthermore, the distribution of the international currencies is disproportional in that they tend to be more concentrated on major financial centers. Based on the empirical studies, we simulate the theoretical global distribution of RMB, which is illuminating for policy decisions. |
| 文章编号 | WP659 |
| 登载时间 | 2014-08-19 |
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