时空异质性、反弹效应与中国能源效率的演化分析
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| Title | Spatio-temporal heterogeneity, rebound effect and the evolution of energy efficiency in China
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| 作者 | 范如国 罗明 |
| Author | Fan Ruguo and Luo Ming |
| 作者单位 | 武汉大学 |
| Organization | Wuhan University |
| 作者Email | rgfan@whu.edu.cn；luoming831@163.com |
| 中文关键词 | 能源效率 时空异质性 能源反弹效应 时空加权回归模型 |
| Key Words | Energy Efficiency；Spatio-temporal Heterogeneity；Energy Rebound Effect；Geographically and Temporally Weighted Regression Model |
| 内容提要 | 现有关于能源效率问题的研究未能考虑能源效率演化的时空异质性和能源反弹效应冲击。本文首先利用时空加权回归模型分析了我国各省区在1995年—2011年间各时空点上能源效率演化的局域性质，然后利用新古典经济学方法估算了样本期内全国和各省区的能源反弹效应情况，最后探讨了能源反弹效应对能源效率演化中的技术效应产生的复杂影响。研究表明：在我国能源效率演化过程中，总体而言，产业结构轻型化起到了提升能源效率的作用，能源价格因市场化程度较低而呈现不显著的调节作用，制约能源效率提高的因素主要有能源消费结构、技术进步和对外开放程度；从局部区域和阶段上看，各因素的影响程度又存在异质性。计算发现，中国存在显著的能源反弹效应，技术进步的负面作用主要源于能源反弹效应的冲击，并随着过度的资本深化被进一步强化。由于能源效率演化中存在时空异质性和反弹效应，因此在节能减排、提高能效的过程中，需要充分考虑能源效率演化路径的时空差异，并结合要素的优化配置及相关节能政策来减缓能源反弹的冲击，以实现不同区域能源效率提高和能源消费的平衡发展。 |
| Abstract | Most research on energy efficiency issues shows that spatio-temporal heterogeneity in the evolution of energy efficiency and impact of energy rebound effect are often been neglected. In this paper, we apply the Geographically and Temporally Weighted Regression Model to analyze the local effect of the energy efficiency evolution in most provinces of China from 1995 to 2011，and then we use the method of neoclassical economics to estimate energy rebound effect of China and every province during the sample period，aimed to study how the rebound effect makes influence on technological effect in the evolution of energy efficiency. Results show that in the evolution of China's energy efficiency, the industrial structure plays an important role in improving energy efficiency, while the effect of energy prices doesn't show significant effect for it's low marketization. What restrict the energy efficiency's improving are the energy consumption structure,the technological advances and the openness. But there exists heterogeneity how the factors make effect in the local area and stage.The empirical results also show that the negative effect of technological advances on energy efficiency results from the significant rebound effect in China and it is reinforced because of the excessive deepening of capital.Because the spatio-temporal heterogeneity and the rebound effect exist significantly in the evolution of energy efficiency, so that we need to take full account of the spatio-temporal variation and optimize allocation of elements in the evolutionary path of energy efficiency to improving energy efficiency and make the balanced development of energy consumption in different regions. |
| 文章编号 | WP657 |
| 登载时间 | 2014-08-15 |
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