分时与阶梯混合定价下的居民电力需求——基于DCC模型的分析
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| Title | Residential Electricity Demand under Time-of-Use Pricing and Increasing Block Pricing: An Analysis Based on DCC Model
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| 作者 | 张昕竹 刘自敏 |
| Author | Zhang Xinzhu and Liu Zimin |
| 作者单位 | 江西财经大学；西南大学经济管理学院 |
| Organization | Research Center for Regulation and Competition at Chinese Academy of SocialScience；School of Economics and Management of Southwest University |
| 作者Email | xzzhang@public.bta.net.cn；ziminliu@126.com |
| 中文关键词 | 居民电力需求 递增阶梯定价 峰谷定价 离散/连续选择模型 双误差 |
| Key Words | Residential Electricity Demand; Increasing Block Pricing; Peak Load Pricing; Discrete/Continuous Choice Model; Two-Error Model |
| 内容提要 | 本文使用居民用电和家电持有等微观家庭数据，利用双误差离散/连续选择模型，对分时与阶梯混合定价下的居民电力需求进行实证研究。基于分时定价与阶梯定价共存的现实场景，本文首先将混合定价曲线转换为复合阶梯定价曲线；然后基于用户在尖点处的聚集特征，验证使用离散/连续选择模型的合理性；最后对双误差离散/连续选择模型进行估计。本文的基本结论是，引入阶梯定价确实增加了用户的价格弹性，并且中低收入人群的价格弹性更大，中高收入人群的收入弹性更高、中高收入人群的异质性误差更大等结论。本文的研究为系统评估阶梯定价的政策效果奠定了基础。 |
| Abstract | Using residential electricity consumption and household survey data we analyze residential electricity demand under time-of-use pricing cum increasing block pricing (IBP) based on the two-error discrete/continuous choice model. We first convert the mixed pricing structure into a new IBP system, then justify the specification of an DCC model by showing the aggregating behavior around kink points, and finally, estimate the two-error DCC model. Our conclusion is that IBP increases price elasticity significantly with middle-low income households having higher price elasticity and middle-high income households have higher income elasticity and bigger heterogeneity error. Our results contribute to a systematic assessment of IBP implementation in electricity and other sectors as well. |
| 文章编号 | WP650 |
| 登载时间 | 2014-08-12 |
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