中国资本与劳动力配置结构效应的再分析
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| Title | New Analysis on the Growth Effects of Factor Allocation in China
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| 作者 | 辛超 张平 袁富华 |
| Author | Xin Chao, Zhang Ping and Yuan Fuhua |
| 作者单位 | 中国社科院研究生院； 中国社科院经济所 |
| Organization | Graduate School of CASS; Institute of Economics, Chinese Academy of Social Science |
| 作者Email | xinchao121@126.com; zhangping_cass@126.com; fuhua_yuan1@163.com |
| 中文关键词 | 要素配置结构效应 结构性减速 资本配置效率 资本存量测算 |
| Key Words | Structural reduction of growth; Structural effects; Factor allocation; Capital stock |
| 内容提要 | 在中国，产业间资本配置是否存在“结构负利”？劳动力配置结构效应当前所处阶段及未来演变趋势是怎样的？这是本文所要解决的两大核心问题。本文发现，基于当前投资数据测算各行业资本存量，会严重高估第三产业的资本存量，得到资本配置“结构负利”与资本配置严重违背效率原则等失真结论，通过剔除房地产业，本文对此进行了验证。本文对劳动力配置结构效应的研究表明，改革开放以来其均值为0.63个百分点，与剩余经济增长率和剩余TFP明显正相关并有推动作用，并呈现出十年左右的“改革周期”。通过国际比较本文发现劳动力配置结构效应存在高、中、低三个阶段。我们预计，至2017年中国仍将处于第一阶段；2017~2023年是由第一阶段向第二阶段的转折期，彼时结构性减速压力将迅速增强；2030年以后将进入第三阶段，彼时劳动力配置结构效应将于低位徘徊，经济进入低速增长阶段。该发现有助于帮助我们更好地判断未来经济增长趋势并做出合理应对。 |
| Abstract | This paper promotes the research on the structural impacts from capital and labor allocation in China by using the multi-sector model of growth accounting. It confirms that there are serious deficiencies in the official statistical method for industrial investments, which distort calculations of industrial capital stock and the influence of capital allocation. By excluding the real estate industry, the results show a dramatic improvement of capital allocation since the middle of 1990s but a serious misallocation of capital that resulted from the 4 trillion stimulus plan. The study about the effect of labor allocation (SGL) shows an average impact on growth of 0.63 percentage points which is related positively with both economic growth and TFP, and reveals ten-year political cycles originating from cyclic reforms. The results of international comparison indicate that there are three periods for SGLs, in which SGLs are high, medium and low respectively. The authors predict that China’ SGL will remain in the high period until 2017, and it is the period of 2017 - 2023 that is the dramatic transition stage leading to the medium SGL when China’s economy will suffer significant pressures arising from the structural slowdown. The low period will emerge after 2030, then no longer will SGL be conspicuous. These findings improve the estimations of growth trend of China’s economy and contribute to subsequent research. |
| 文章编号 | WP648 |
| 登载时间 | 2014-08-08 |
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