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探究最优公务员薪酬与规模——长期均衡条件与周期性调整政策
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TitleOn Optimal Public Employment and Wage:--Steady-state Equilibrium and Business Cycle Policy  
作者张晓娣  
AuthorZhang Xiaodi  
作者单位复旦大学经济学院 
OrganizationFudan University 
作者Emaildairyapple1226@yeah.net 
中文关键词最优公务员工资与规模 周期性公共就业 政策实验模拟 
Key WordsOptimal Public Employee Wage And Size; Cyclical Public Employment Policy; Policy Experiment Simulation 
内容提要本文构建动态随机一般均衡(DSGE)模型推导最优公共就业规模与工资,并利用省级面板数据及时间序列VAR模型检验出中国政府就业基本满足理论模型预测的长期均衡条件。短期应对经济周期的合理公共就业政策为顺周期调整工资率和反周期变动公务员数量,DSGE框架下的政策模拟表明,任何偏离最优的方案都将扩大就业与产出波动性。转向发展视角,分位数回归分析显示,最优周期性公共就业政策具有促进社会公平、防止两级分化的正面效应;引入代际交叠元素的福利分析说明,该政策能够有效防止当代居民效用受外生冲击影响而下滑,但未来福利成本可能随税率或转移支付而回弹。 
AbstractA dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model is built to determine the optimal public sector wage and employment. A panel estimate of 23 provinces over 1991-2012 and VAR analysis indicates China’s public employment is consistent with the long-run relationship predicted by the theoretical model. Following business cycle, public sector wages should be pro-cyclical while employment should be counter-cyclical; policy simulation demonstrates that deviations from the optimal policy significantly increase the volatility of unemployment and output. With regard to development, quantile regression technique is applied here to show that the optimal cyclical public employment policy may benefit middle income group and reduce earnings inequality; by incorporating public employment in an overlapping generations framework, welfare analysis implies that under the optimal policy, current generations don’t suffer much losses from external shocks, however, welfare cost might be increasing in the future due to a rise in tax or a cut in transfers.  
文章编号WP645 
登载时间2014-08-08 
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