电信基础设施与中国经济增长
阅读全文
下载全文 |
| Title | Telecommunications Infrastructure and Chinese Economic Growth
|
| 作者 | 郑世林 周黎安 何维达 |
| Author | Zheng Shilin Zhou Li-an and He Weida |
| 作者单位 | 中国社会科学院数量经济与技术经济研究所；北京大学光华管理学院；北京科技大学经济管理学院 |
| Organization | Chinese Academy of Social Science;Beijing University; University of Science and Technology Beijing |
| 作者Email | zhengsl@cass.org.cn;zhoula@gsm.pku.edu.cn；hewd@manage.ustb.edu.cn |
| 中文关键词 | 基础设施 经济增长 电信行业 经济体制改革 |
| Key Words | Infrastructure; Economic Growth; Telecommunications Industry; Economic Reform |
| 内容提要 | 后金融危机时代，世界各国纷纷提出电信基础设施刺激计划，以拉动经济增长并抢占下一轮信息技术革命先机。本文利用中国电信改革外生变量克服了电信基础设施与经济增长的内生性，分别考察了不同行业周期固定和移动电话基础设施对经济增长的影响，研究发现，在电信行业发展初期（1990-1999年），移动电话和固定电话基础设施共同发展促进了经济增长。跨入21世纪行业迅速进入相对成熟期（2000-2010年），虽然移动电话基础设施对经济增长具有显著的正向影响，但是其对经济增长的贡献率在递减。而且，由于落后小灵通基础设施淘汰等问题，使得固定电话基础设施对经济增长呈现出负向影响。研究结果不但表明传统电信基础设施对中国经济增长的促进空间不断萎缩，而且蕴含着在未来电信基础设施建设中应当准确把握行业发展周期规律，以避免大规模基础设施淘汰对经济增长质量造成的损伤。 |
| Abstract | In response to the financial crisis, many countries provided the telecommunications infrastructure stimulus plan to seize the opportunity of the next information revolution since 2008. Using the exogenous variables of telecommunications reform to overcome the endogeneity between telecommunication infrastructure and economic growth, we separately examined fixed and mobile telephony infrastructure on economic growth effect during the different industrial development period. We find that mobile phone and fixed phone infrastructure complementarily promotes economic growth in the early build out period (1990-1999). Telecommunications industry quickly has entered into the more mature period (2000-2010) since 2000. We find that mobile services contribute much more to growth but that the effect diminishes over time as the markets for these services become more mature. Due to the abandonment of PHS infrastructure and duplicative construction of fixed telephone infrastructure, the fixed telephone infrastructure is significantly negatively correlated with economic growth. Our results not only show that the traditional telecommunications infrastructure has more and more small space to contribute to the economic growth, but also indicate that the development of telecommunications infrastructure should be put emphasis on the industrial lifecycle so as to avoid the abandonment of the large-scale infrastructure result in damaging on the economic growth quality. |
| 文章编号 | WP629 |
| 登载时间 | 2014-07-01 |
|