人力资本的代际传导对社会流动性的影响：理论与实证的探究
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| Title | The Impact of Intergenerational Transmission of Human Capital on Social Mobility – A Theoretical and Empirical Investigati
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| 作者 | 秦雪征 王天宇 |
| Author | Qin Xuezheng and Wang Tianyu |
| 作者单位 | 北京大学经济学院 |
| Organization | School of Economics, Peking University |
| 作者Email | qin.econpku@gmail.com,wangtianyu@pku.edu.cn |
| 中文关键词 | 人力资本 社会流动性 代际传导 |
| Key Words | Human Capital; Social Mobility; Intergenerational Transmission |
| 内容提要 | 社会流动性是经济长期可持续增长的核心要素。然而，伴随着我国改革开放后国民收入的高速增长，社会流动性下降与贫富分化加剧日益成为制约我国未来经济发展的瓶颈。本文从我国社会流动性不足的根源出发，分别从理论和实证角度研究人力资本的代际传导对收入流动性的影响。我们的理论分析在经典的三期世代交叠（OLG）模型的基础上引入人力资本的直接传导机制，发现其对跨代人力资本投资行为和代际收入弹性的计算公式会产生显著影响。在实证研究中，我们利用联立方程模型及1989-2009年中国健康与营养调查（CHNS）数据对理论预测进行验证，发现以健康和教育为代表的人力资本变量具有显著的代际传递效应，反映出我国后代人口在发展机会上的不平等程度；同时，在考虑人力资本的直接代际传导后，收入的传递弹性从0.383上升至0.48，符合上述理论预期，说明传统估计方法由于忽视该传导机制而造成对我国社会流动性过于乐观的估计。我们进而在增强弱势群体的人力资本投资、推进“机会均等化”改革和完善劳动力市场机制等方面提出了政策建议。 |
| Abstract | This paper provides a theoretical and empirical framework to analyze the impact of intergenerational transmission of human capital on income mobility in China. Our theoretical model incorporates the direct transmission of human capital into a 3-period overlapping generation (OLG) model, and finds that the direct transmission mechanism has a remarkable impact on parents’ human capital investment on their children and the intergenerational elasticity of income. In the empirical analysis, we estimate a simultaneous equation model to verify the theoretical prediction using the 1989-2009 China Health and Nutrition Survey (CHNS) data. The results show that human capital, measured by health and education, is largely transmitted from one generation to the next, which reflects the parent-induced inequality of development opportunity among the offspring. Moreover, the estimated intergenerational income elasticity increases from 0.383 to 0.480 when the direct transmission of human capital is taken into consideration, which indicates that omitting this mechanism would over-estimate China’s social mobility. Our findings provide policy implications on strengthening the human capital investment among disadvantaged groups, reinforcing reforms that promote equality of opportunity, and improving the efficiency of labor markets. |
| 文章编号 | WP616 |
| 登载时间 | 2014-04-04 |
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