社会保障对生育意愿的影响
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| Title | The Impact of Social Security on Fertility Will
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| 作者 | 王天宇 彭晓博 |
| Author | Wang Tianyu and Peng Xiaobo |
| 作者单位 | 北京大学 |
| Organization | Peking University |
| 作者Email | wangtianyu@pku.edu.cn;xiaobopeng1212@gmail.com |
| 中文关键词 | 社会保障 生育意愿 计划生育 新农村合作医疗 |
| Key Words | Social Security; Fertility Will; One-Child Policy; New Rural Cooperative Medical Scheme |
| 内容提要 | 社会保障制度对个体生育决策和总和生育率的深远影响早已被大量研究所证实，但由于人口政策对生育行为的限制，鲜有文献对中国情境进行探讨。本文考察了新型农村合作医疗制度的建立对居民生育意愿的影响。基于两期家庭决策模型的分析表明，带有补贴的新农合会对生育数量产生两种方向相反的效应：收入效应和挤出效应，前者导致生育意愿的提高，后者导致生育意愿的下降。利用中国健康与营养调查（China Health and Nutrition Survey，CHNS）2000-2009的数据，我们发现挤出效应占主导地位，参加新农合使居民想再要孩子的意愿降低了3%-10%。据此，我们认为社会保障体系建设的持续推进将为放松人口政策提供空间。 |
| Abstract | It has been demonstrated by a great deal of research that social security has profound influence on individual fertility decision and total fertility rate. However, relevant study about China is still rare due to the limitation (distortion) of one-child policy on fertility behavior. In this paper, we investigate the effect of the New Rural Cooperative Medical Scheme (NCMS) on fertility will of China’s rural residents. Based on two-period family decision model, we find that the NCMS with subsidy from government has both income effect and crowd-out effect. The former increases the fertility will while the latter depresses it. Armed with the 2000-2009 longitudinal data from China Health and Nutrition Survey (CHNS), we find that the crowd-out effect outweigh the income effect. That is, enrolling in the NCMS makes the fertility will of women at child bearing age decrease by 3%-10%. Supported by both theoretical and empirical evidence, we think the establishment and popularization of health insurance can provide some opportunity for the relaxation of the one-child policy. |
| 文章编号 | WP599 |
| 登载时间 | 2014-01-27 |
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