地方债务、土地市场与地区经济增长：基于债务的双重引资作用分析
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| Title | cal Government Debt, Land Market Institution and Regional Economic Growth
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| 作者 | 范剑勇 莫家伟 |
| Author | Fan Jianyong and Mo Jiawei |
| 作者单位 | 复旦大学经济学院 |
| Organization | School of Economics, Fudan University |
| 作者Email | jyfan0393@163.com；mojiawei423@hotmail.com |
| 中文关键词 | 地方债务 基础设施投资 引资竞争 |
| Key Words | Local government debt; Infrastructure investment; Competition for investment |
| 内容提要 | 自2008年全球金融危机以来，中国的地方政府性债务快速膨胀。本文构建“投资者-地方政府”模型，从债务的双重引资作用角度分析地方政府举债冲动难以遏制的原因。模型论证了以下机制：债务作为地方政府动用资金能力的体现，不仅表现为以直接投资的形式增加GDP，而且能够通过基础设施建设和压低工业用地价格双重渠道吸引工业投资，对当地经济增长起到强烈的杠杆作用。本文的实证发现支持了地方政府性债务的双重引资作用。同时，对于不同经济发展条件与禀赋的地区来说，以债务推动经济增长的发展模式面临两类风险：1）经济条件与禀赋较差的地区在引资竞争中处于劣势，未来土地出让收入可能不足以偿还债务；2）经济条件与禀赋较好的地区在引资竞争中将土地资源过度配置到工业部门，导致商住用地资源紧缺、住房价格快速上涨。 |
| Abstract | The amount of Chinese local government debt has surged dramatically since the financial crisis in 2008. In this paper, we develop an “investor-local government” model to investigate the reason why it is difficult to prevent local officials from running into debt, from the perspective of debt’s double investment-inducing effect. Our model implies that local government debt, as a critical indicator of government’s ability of raising money, not only increases local industrial output directly but also attracts investment effectively by two channels, that is, by increasing investment of infrastructure and by lowering price of industrial land, which together foster local economic growth. Our empirical findings largely confirm the double investment-attracting effect of local government debt based on China’s prefectural- level panel data from 2003 to 2007. However, cities with different endowments might face different risks while pushing economic growth by raising debt: (1) cities with poor economic conditions and less endowments have comparative disadvantage in the competition for investment and their land leasing revenue in the near future might not be large enough to cover the historical debt; (2) cities with better endowments and better economic conditions, on the other hand, might suffer surging housing price due to their over-supply of industrial land and the ensuing shortage of residential land. |
| 文章编号 | WP580 |
| 登载时间 | 2014-01-14 |
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