城镇化对于居民消费率的影响——理论模型与实证分析 阅读全文
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Title | The Effect of Urbanization on the Household Consumption Rate: Theoretical and Empirical Analysis
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作者 | 雷潇雨 龚六堂 |
Author | Lei Xiaoyu and Gong Liutang |
作者单位 | 北京大学光华管理学院 |
Organization | Guanghua School of Management, Peking University |
作者Email | leixy10@pku.edu.cn |
中文关键词 | 城镇化 集聚效应 农民工 居民消费率 |
Key Words | Urbanization; Agglomeration Effect; Rural Migration Workers; Household Consumption Rate |
内容提要 | 本文通过建立一个包含多种类型消费者(城市市民、城市非市民及农民)和城市政府的理论框架,来分析城镇化对我国居民消费率的影响。同时,还选取全国176个城市2001到2010年的数据进行了实证分析。研究结果表明,城镇化水平的提高能够推动城市消费率的增长,但是快速的城镇化则会阻碍消费率增长。实证显示这一关系在我国不同地区间存在显著区别,中部城市比东部城市更容易通过扩大人口规模来提高城市生产能力和推动消费;而东部城市只有通过促进农民工市民化,才能够推进消费率增长。进一步,本文还通过参数估计给出了我国城市人口集聚效应的产出弹性。 |
Abstract | Based on a theoretical model which consists of multiple consumers (the city labors, the rural migrant workers and the farmers) and the city governments, this paper explains how urbanization affects Chinese household consumption rate. We also perform a regression analysis of the data from 2001 to 2010 in 176 cities. The results show that the growth of consumption rate is increased by urbanization, but decreased by the raise of urbanization speed. These relationships are different between regions according to the empirical analysis. Compared with the eastern cities, the central ones can enhance urban productivity and consumption much more by increasing their population. For eastern cities, the only way to promote the growth of consumption rate is citizenization of rural migrant workers. Our empirical works also estimate the output elasticity of urban agglomeration in China. |
文章编号 | WP569 |
登载时间 | 2013-11-28 |
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