预期及其有偏性研究：进展与争议
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| Title | Expectation and Its Biasness: Research Progress and Puzzles
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| 作者 | 钟春平 田敏 |
| Author | Zhong Chunping and Tian Ming |
| 作者单位 | 中国社科院财经战略研究院 |
| Organization | Huazhong University of Science and Technology |
| 作者Email | springzenith@gmail.com，cpzenith@163.com |
| 中文关键词 | 宏观经济学 信息 预期 机制 冲击 |
| Key Words | Macroeconomics, Information; Expectation; Mechanism; Shock. |
| 内容提要 | 预期在宏观经济学及其发展中具有根本性的作用，但是预期是否有偏的，仍然存在着争议，整体上，大多研究表明预期是有偏的，存在着信息刚性问题。在预期形成机制上，有着信息处理能力及理性忽略等新近进展，但整体上对预期及其形成机制的研究仍然有待深入。在不同预期模型和信息处理能力设定下，宏观经济及宏观政策都将做相应的调整。 |
| Abstract | Expectation is a fundamental issue in macroeconomics and its development, but it remains a puzzle whether expectation is biased or not. Generally, most research shows the expectation is biased, and there is information rigidity, and there are recent research on expectation formation such as information processing limit and rational inattention, however we need further research on expectation and mechanism of expectation formation. Macroeconomics and macroeconomic policy should be adjusted under different expectation models and information settings. |
| 文章编号 | WP552 |
| 登载时间 | 2013-11-12 |
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