商品金融化分层与通货膨胀驱动机制
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| Title | Goods Financialization and Inflation in China
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| 作者 | 张成思 刘泽豪 |
| Author | Zhang Chengsi and Liu Zehao |
| 作者单位 | 中国人民大学 |
| Organization | School of Finance, Renmin University of China |
| 作者Email | zhangcs@ruc.edu.cn |
| 中文关键词 | 商品金融化 资本轮动 通货膨胀 |
| Key Words | Financialization of Goods; Capital Switching; Inflation |
| 内容提要 | 普通商品的利润积累越来越多地通过金融渠道获得并与金融产品在资本聚集度和价格波动模式上表现出相似性和相关性的现象可以称为商品金融化。本文将资本轮动要素引入乘数加速数模型，基于内生经济周期理论阐释不同金融化程度商品的价格形成机制，并将因子分析与向量自回归模型相结合，对不同金融化程度商品的价格变动对总体通货膨胀的驱动机制进行研究。结果表明：商品金融化程度不同，其价格变动对通货膨胀的驱动效应也不同，金融化程度越高的商品价格变动对通货膨胀的驱动效应越明显，并且与通货膨胀的互动表现为双向性；中等金融化程度的商品价格变动对通货膨胀具有单向影响；金融化程度较低的商品对通货膨胀没有显著驱动效应。因此，区分商品金融化程度有助于提高宏观决策针对性。 |
| Abstract | The phenomenon that goods manifests a similar pattern in capital intensity and price volatility is called the financalization of goods. This paper introduces capital switching into the Multiplier-Accelerator model to explain the price-driving mechanism of goods at different levels of financialization. The paper combines factor analysis with VAR model and finds that the price changes of goods at different levels of financialization exhibit different effects on consumer price inflation. The prices of goods at high and medium financial levels have bilateral and unilateral causal relationships with consumer price inflation, respectively, while the prices of goods at low financial level have no causal relationship with consumer price inflation. The findings provide useful information for macro policy. |
| 文章编号 | WP528 |
| 登载时间 | 2013-09-13 |
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