中国城市化、电力消费与经济增长
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| Title | Urbanization, Electricity Consumption and China’s Economic Growth
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| 作者 | 方德斌 林伯强 余谦 |
| Author | Fang Debin, Lin Boqiang and Yu Qian |
| 作者单位 | 武汉大学经济与管理学院；厦门大学经济学院、厦门大学中国能源经济研究中心；武汉理工大学经济学院 |
| Organization | Economics and Management School, Wuhan University;China Centre for Energy Economics Research, Xiamen University;School of Economics, Wuhan University of Technology |
| 作者Email | dbfang@whu.edu.cn |
| 中文关键词 | 经济增长 电力消费 城市化 格兰杰因果检验 脉冲响应 |
| Key Words | Economic Growth; Electricity Consumption; Urbanization; Cointegration; Granger Causality Test |
| 内容提要 | 随着我国经济发展进入城市化工业化进程，电力消费和经济增长之间的关系将发生变化。本文在多元分析框架下，运用1980年至2009年间的数据，实证研究了城市化进程中的电力消费与经济增长的关系。本文得出如下结论：（1）采用协整检验得出：中国国内生产总值与电力消费、固定资本形成总额、劳动力和城市化之间存在长期均衡关系。城市化进程中电力消费和经济增长具有内生性。（2）采用Granger检验得出：中国经济增长和电力消费之间存在明显的双向格兰杰因果关系，存在城市化进程到电力消费的单向格兰杰因果关系，电力消费到固定资本形成总额的单向格兰杰因果关系。（3）采用向量误差修正模型方法得出：中国经济增长的短期波动，大约有78.2%的原因应归于电力投入、投资、劳动力投入、城市化进程以及经济系统对自身前一时期偏离长期均衡水平的调整。（4）采用脉冲响应、方差分解技术等对城市化进程、电力消费和经济增长相互关系进行了动态分析。这些结论具有重要的政策含义：为适应中国经济快速健康增长和快速的城市化进程，应制定“电力先行”的发展政策，以避免电力短缺导致的经济损失。 |
| Abstract | With the process of urbanization,the relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth will change. In this paper we examine the relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth under urbanization in China during 1980-2009. We incorporate the gross fixed capital formation and the employment level—thereby creating a multivariate analysis framework. This paper mainly contributes to the following: (1) there is a long-run equilibrium relationship among those variables; electricity consumption and economic growth under urbanization have endogenous. (2) there is a distinct bidirectional causality between electricity consumption and economic growth in China. In addition, the results show that urbanization in China Granger causes electricity consume. (3)the short-term fluctuation of economics growth put it 78.2% down to electrical input,?investment and labor input, urbanization and adjustment by itself. (4) We employ Vector Error Correction Model, Impulse Response and Variance Decomposition techniques to analyze further the real relation between electricity consumption and economic growth under urbanization. The study, therefore, recommends that policies geared towards the expansion of the electricity infrastructure should be intensified in China in order to cope with the increasing demand exerted by the country's strong economic growth and rapid urbanization. |
| 文章编号 | WP488 |
| 登载时间 | 2013-07-08 |
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