税收分成激励与产业结构变化——兼论“营改增”后的税收分成问题
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| Title | Tax Sharing Incentives and Industrial Structure Changes in China
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| 作者 | 谢贞发 刘莉 |
| Author | Xie Zhenfa and Liu Li |
| 作者单位 | 厦门大学 |
| Organization | Xiamen University |
| 作者Email | xzf@xmu.edu.cn; 123494509@qq.com |
| 中文关键词 | 税收分成 产业结构 经济发展 营改增 |
| Key Words | Tax Sharing; Economic Development; Industrial Structure; Change from Business Tax to Value-Added Tax |
| 内容提要 | 中央地方税收分成激励会对地方政府相关产业努力投入水平产生影响，进而引起产业结构的变化。同时，地方政府产业努力投入水平还受到经济发展水平的制约，从而也影响了产业结构的变化。利用1998-2011年30个省级地区的面板数据，采用动态面板系统GMM方法，论文实证检验了营业税与增值税的税收分成差异、经济发展水平及相关因素对相关产业结构的影响。结果发现，营业税与增值税的分成差异所带来的产业税额差与相应的产业结构呈显著正向关系；而经济发展水平的影响结果显示我国当前的产业结构变化主要还是以制造业为主的第二产业的发展为主导的。研究结果建议“营改增”后应统一增值税的分成比例，以减少分成差别所带来的产业结构的扭曲效应。 |
| Abstract | The paper studies the effect tax sharing incentive between central and local governments imposes on the local governments’ efforts level, which causes the changes in the industrial structure. And the efforts level of local governments is also constrained by the economic development, which also affected the changes in the structure of the industry. Using the panel data from 1998 to 2011 in 30 provinces and the Dynamic Panel Data-System GMM method, this paper conducts an empirical analysis on the impact of tax sharing differences, economic development and other related factors contributing to the changes of the industrial structure. It is found that the relationship between the tax differences brought about by the sharing ratio between business tax and VAT and the industrial structure was significantly positive. As a result, the changes of the industrial structure caused by economic development are mainly characterized by the development of the manufacturing industry. The findins suggest that VAT sharing ratio should be unified after the change from Business tax to VAT in order to reduce its distorting effects on the industrial structure. |
| 文章编号 | WP461 |
| 登载时间 | 2013-06-06 |
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