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中国服务出口复杂度的国际比较分析——兼对“服务贸易差额悖论”的解释
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TitleChinese Services Export Sophistication Based on International Comparison: Concurrently on “Services Trade Balance Paradox”  
作者程大中  
AuthorCheng Dazhong  
作者单位复旦大学世界经济系和世界经济研究所 
OrganizationDepartment of World Economy and Institute for World Economy, Fudan University 
作者Emailchengdz@fudan.edu.cn 
中文关键词服务贸易 出口复杂度 服务贸易差额悖论 
Key WordsTrade in Services; Export Sophistication; Services Trade Balance Paradox 
内容提要本文借用货物贸易出口复杂度指数评估中国服务出口的复杂度。全球比较分析显示,在2000-2010年间,中国总体服务出口复杂度不到世界平均水平的40%,并趋于下降且在“入世”之后尤为明显;以美国为基准的16个贸易大国(或地区)对比分析显示,中国除建筑服务外的其他所有服务部门出口复杂度均大大低于美国,而且总体服务及其运输、保险、金融、版权和特许费以及个人、文化及娱乐服务等细分部门的出口复杂度在样本经济体中是最低的。在此基础上,本文首次尝试从多边和双边两个维度检验服务出口复杂度对服务贸易差额的影响,结果显示服务出口复杂度越低(高),则服务贸易逆差(顺差)的规模或可能性就越大。这是基于非价格因素视角对“服务贸易差额悖论”的新解释。 
AbstractThe Export Sophistication Index (ESI) for merchandise trade is applied to Chinese services export. The global comparison shows that, from 2000 to 2010, the ESI of Chinese overall services has been less than 40% of the world average, with a deceasing trend especially after China’s entry into WTO in 2001. The comparison among 16 largest trade economies with the USA as a benchmark reveals that the ESIs of all Chinese services except Construction are far below those of the USA, and the overall services and sub-items such as Transportation, Insurance, Financial services, Royalties and license fees, and Personal, cultural, and recreational services have the lowest ESIs among the sample economies. Furthermore, the paper for the first time attempts to examine the impact of services export sophistication on the services trade balance. The result demonstrates that the lower (higher) the ESI for services, the greater the likelihood that services trade will be in deficit (surplus). This is a new interpretation of “services trade balance paradox” from the aspect of non-price factors, and thus implies that quality competition might be more crucial than price competition in services trade.  
文章编号WP456 
登载时间2013-06-06 
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