以国债战略推动人民币国际化
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| Title | RMB Internationalization byBond Strategy
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| 作者 | 龚刚 李炳念 杨光 |
| Author | Gong Gang,Li Bingnian and Yang Guang |
| 作者单位 | 南开大学经济学院 |
| Organization | Economic School of Nankai University, Tianjin, China |
| 作者Email | gongg@nankai.edu.cn；libingnian@mail.nankai.edu.cn；yangg@nankai.edu.cn |
| 中文关键词 | 人民币国际化资产性需求的不稳定 离岸市场 国债 |
| Key Words | RMB Internationalization; Unstability of Asset Demand; Offshore Market;Bond |
| 内容提要 | 推动人民币国际化的主要力量来自于国际社会对人民币的资产性需求，而不是交易性需求。然而，相对于交易性需求，资产性需求极不稳定。正因为如此，从资产性需求推动人民币国际化有可能带来人民币国际化的逆转风险。资产性需求的这种不稳定意味着我们不能过早开放资本市场。然而，资产性需求的这种不稳定性只有当国际社会所持有的人民币资产规模较小时才可能出现。当资产规模达到一定程度时，人民币本身会内生出某种价格稳定机制。于是，如何在人民币国际化初期，中国资本市场管制（以避免人民币国际化逆转风险）的情况下，大力推动人民币资产性需求就成为人民币国际化的关键。本文将提出一种新的人民币国际化战略，即国债战略。我们认为，国债战略不仅能有效推动人民币资产性需求，同时也能降低人民币国际化的逆转风险；同时，按照中国目前的经济基本面和发展势态，中国完全有能力实施这一战略；此外，这样一种战略也同样有利于中国经济增长方式的转型，并为维护中国的经济安全和国家主权提供足够的资源保障。 |
| Abstract | The main driving force of RMB internationalization isasset demand in the international market, rather than transaction demand. However, asset demand is much more unstable than transaction demand. Thus, RMB internationalization via asset demand may bring the inverse risk of RMB internationalization. This indicates that the capital account should not be opened too early, and too rashly. However, the unstable asset demand may occur only if the asset hold by international community is not large. When the asset held by international community reachesto a certain scale, RMB itself will generate endogenously a stabilizationmechanismwith regard to its price (or exchange rate). Therefore, increasing asset demand under the conditionof no inverse risk is the key driving force of RMB internationalization. In this paper we propose a new strategy of RMB internationalization, that is, bond strategy. We argue that the bond strategycan not only increase asset demand effectively, but also reduce the inverse risk of RMB internationalization.Given the economic fundamentals and the development trend in China, China has a full capacity toimplement thisstrategy. Moreover, this strategy will also benefitthe growth transformation of China, and provideresources to protect Chinese economy and nationalsovereignty. |
| 文章编号 | WP440 |
| 登载时间 | 2013-04-26 |
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