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攫取之手、援助之手与中国税收超GDP增长
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TitleGrabbing Hand, Helping Hand and Tax-exceeding-GDP Growth  
作者方红生 张军  
AuthorFang Hongsheng and Zhang Jun  
作者单位浙江大学经济学院,复旦大学中国经济研究中心 
OrganizationCollege of Economics, Zhejiang University; China Center for Economic Studies, Fudan University 
作者Emailfudancenter7@yahoo.com.cn,junzh_2000@fudan.edu.cn 
中文关键词税收集权假说 真实攫取之手 真实援助之手 匹配区间 
Key WordsTax Centralization Hypothesis; Real Grabbing Hand; Real Helping Hand; Matching Interval 
内容提要1994年分税制改革后,中央政府采取了攫取与援助两只手来实现宏观经济的稳定与保持经济的持续增长。基于最新的税收集权假说和粘蝇纸假说,本文提出了四个有关“两只手”的假说来解释“中国税收持续超GDP增长”的现象。通过构造分省的中央政府真实攫取之手和援助之手的平衡面板数据,并利用系统GMM估计方法和Acemoglu et al.(2003)给出的用于识别渠道相对重要性的方法,本文证实了所提的假说。本文的一个基本结论是,尽管人们对两只手治理模式有着不同的评价,但是对于中国高税行业的发展及其税收超GDP增长现象而言总体上都表现为正面推动作用。具体而言,我们有三个重要发现:第一,尽管两只手有时会相互抑制,但是两只手治理模式对于中国税收持续超GDP增长现象的确具有正向推动作用,而且其解释力至少为52%。第二,尽管在提高税收净流出地区的税收占GDP比重方面,主要渠道是税收征管效率而非高税行业的发展,但是两只手治理模式的确调动起了地方政府大力发展高税行业的积极性。第三,与税收净流出地区不同,在提高税收净流入地区的税收占GDP比重方面,两只手治理模式是将高税行业的发展而非税收征管效率的提高作为其主要渠道的。此外,我们还从两个方面提出了完善两只手治理模式的政策建议。 
AbstractAfter the tax-sharing reform in 1994, central government adopted grabbing and helping hands to realize macroeconomic stability and sustaining growth. Based on new tax centralization hypothesis and flypaper hypothesis, this paper proposes four hypotheses related to two hands to explain the phenomenon of tax-exceeding-GDP growth. Using a provincial panel data of central government's real grabbing and helping hands and System GMM method and Acemoglu et al.(2003)'s method, hypotheses are confirmed. This paper draws a basic conclusion that although there are different remarks on two hands model, this model has indeed a basic positive effect on the development of industries with high tax revenues and the phenomenon of tax-exceeding-GDP growth. Specifically, we have three important findings. First, although there is negative interaction between two hands, this model has indeed positive impact on the phenomenon of tax-exceeding-GDP growth and its explanatory power is at least 52%. Second, although this model increases tax to GDP ratio in tax flow region mainly through tax administration efficiency, it indeed stimulates local governments to try their best to develop industries with higher tax revenues. Third, this model increases tax to GDP ratio in tax inflow region mainly through the development of industries with high tax revenues. Besides, policy suggestions to improve this model are proposed. 
文章编号WP414 
登载时间2013-02-04 
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