金融抑制与中国城镇居民消费
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| Title | Financial Repression and Household Consumption in Urban China
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| 作者 | 李涛 陈斌开 |
| Author | Li Tao and Chen Binkai |
| 作者单位 | 中央财经大学经济学院 |
| Organization | School of Economics, Central University of Finance and Economics |
| 作者Email | econlitao@gmail.com；chenbinkai@gmail.com |
| 中文关键词 | 金融抑制、居民消费、替代效应、财富效应 |
| Key Words | Financial Repression; Household Consumption; Substitution Effect; Wealth Effect |
| 内容提要 | 本文从理论和实证两方面研究了金融抑制对中国城镇居民消费的影响。理论研究表明，金融抑制将导致消费增长率和未来消费水平下降，对当期消费的影响则取决于财富效应和替代效应的相对大小。基于微观家庭数据的经验研究发现，真实利率压低1个百分点，消费增长率将下降0.278个百分点，这个实证结果对于预期回报率测量误差、缺失变量等问题是稳健的。进一步研究发现，金融抑制存在明显的财富效应，低利率导致居民的预期可支配收入下降、储蓄率上升、未来和当期消费水平下降。本文的政策含义在于，在加强金融监管的同时放松中小金融机构准入、逐步实现利率市场化是改善收入分配、刺激中国居民消费的重要手段。 |
| Abstract | This paper studies the relationship between financial repression and household consumption. The theoretical model shows that financial repression will lead to lower consumption growth rate and lower expected consumption level, while the impact of financial repression on current consumption depends on the relative magnitude of wealth effect and substitution effect. Empirical studies based on household data reveal that, consumption growth rate will fall by 0.278 percentage points when the real interest rate is repressed by 1 percentage point. These empirical results are robust to measurement and omitted variables. We show that the wealth effect of financial repression is greater than the substitution effect. Financial repression lead to a decline in household disposable income, which reduces current and expected household consumption, while rises household saving rate. The policy implication of this paper is that removing entry barriers in the financial market and deregulating interest rate are crucial to improve income distribution and stimulate household consumption in China. |
| 文章编号 | WP394 |
| 登载时间 | 2012-11-09 |
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