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资本管制能够抑制国际资本异常流动吗?
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TitleDoes Capital Controls Stop the extreme movements of International Capital flows?  
作者刘莉亚 程天笑 关益众  
AuthorLiu Liya, Cheng Tianxiao and Guan Yizhong  
作者单位上海财经大学金融学院 
OrganizationShanghai University of Finance and Economic, School of Finance 
作者Emailliuliya@mail.shufe.edu.cn;tianxiao_cheng@163.com 
中文关键词资本管制 国际资本 异常流动 
Key WordsCapital Control; International Capital Flows; Extreme Movements 
内容提要面对汹涌的国际资本异常流动,IMF明确提出了资本管制的政策框架,标志IMF对资本管制立场的重大改变。本文将国际资本流动分为“由外国投资者驱动的‘激增’与‘停止’”和“由本国投资者驱动的‘外逃’与‘回流’”。考虑到国际资本净流动可能会抹平国际资本流动波动,本文使用国际资本流动总量数据,理论分析并实证检验了资本管制对于国际资本流动异常的影响。研究结果表明:资本管制的作用是有限的,其只能降低“外逃”和“回流”的发生概率,而不能抑制“激增”和“停止”状态的发生。这表明,对于外国投资者,资本管制是无效的;因此,资本管制不是防止国际资本异常流动的根本对策。 
AbstractIMF proposes the policy framework of capital control under the ground of abnormal international capital flow waves. The paper distinguish the extreme international capital flows into 4 kinds of state which are “surge”, “stop”, “flight” and “retrenchment”. Surge and stop are driven by foreign investors, while flight and retrenchment are driven by domestic investors. The paper use the gross international capital flow data but the net flow data to study the effect of capital control policy on stopping the extreme movements of international capital flows theoretically and empirically, because the net flow data would offset the volatility of international capital flows. The paper finds that the effect of capital controls is limited, which only decrease the probability of “flight” and “stop”, but cannot stop the “surge” and “stop”, so capital control have no effects on foreign investors. 
文章编号WP383 
登载时间2012-09-27 
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