从田间到市场：谁托起了食品通胀？
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| Title | Farm to Market: Food Inflation Dynamics in China
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| 作者 | 杨继生 徐娟 |
| Author | Yang Jisheng and Xu Juan |
| 作者单位 | 华中科技大学经济学院 |
| Organization | School of Economics, Huazhong University of Science and Technology |
| 作者Email | yangjisheng770@sohu.com；xujuan2009@qq.com |
| 中文关键词 | 食品通胀 纵向价格传递 农产品产出波动 货币效应 |
| Key Words | Food Inflation; Vertical Price Transmission; Spatial Difference; Output Fluctuation; Interactive |
| 内容提要 | 内容提要：中国近几轮通胀的引导因素都是食品价格。本文结合货币和供给因素，构建了含交互效应的面板SVAR模型，分析从农产品生产资料投入、生产价格合成、直至零售和消费环节的食品通胀形成机制。结果显示：食品通胀的主要动力来源不是农产品的供给波动或其纵向的价格传递，而是货币和预期主导的需求冲击。农产品生产的实时调控对平抑通胀的作用有限，反而会放大农产品供给的波动。食品通胀主要增加农产品生产者的风险，而不是收益。 |
| Abstract | Food price is the main force behind the inflation in China. Based on the panel data of provinces in China, this paper analyzes the pricing mechanism of food by combing the vertical price transmission from agricultural means of production and agricultural products with the horizontal price transmission from output fluctuation and monetary shock. It shows that the response of food inflation to monetary shock is much different among provinces, and the contribution of monetary to food inflation varies from 60% in western regions to 20% in eastern regions. In the absence of monetary shock, about 60% of food price volatility is contributed to inertia, with 22%~23% to the vertical price transmission and less than 20% to the output fluctuation. The cumulative response of food inflation to price shock of agricultural means of production is near to 0, but the impulse response is significant in first half a year, while the cumulative response of food inflation to price shock of agricultural products is significantly positive with the action period less than a year. The transmission path of food inflation pressure is from eastern developed regions to western developing regions. The main force behind food inflation is demand shock, including monetary and expectation, but not output fluctuation and vertical price transmission. |
| 文章编号 | WP369 |
| 登载时间 | 2012-09-25 |
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