储蓄不足、全球失衡与“中心—外围”模式
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| Title | Saving Deficiency, Global Imbalance and Core-peripheral Model
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| 作者 | 殷剑峰 |
| Author | Yin Jianfeng |
| 作者单位 | 中国社会科学院金融研究所 |
| Organization | Institute of Finance and Banking, CASS |
| 作者Email | yjfifb@cass.org.cn |
| 中文关键词 | 储蓄不足 全球失衡 “中心—外围”模式 |
| Key Words | Saving Deficiency, Global Imbalance, Core-peripheral Model |
| 内容提要 | 在过去四十年中，全球发生的是储蓄率的持续下降而不是所谓的“全球储蓄过剩”.因此，不应该将全球经济失衡简单地归咎于高储蓄率国家。本文聚焦于决定全球宏观经济动态的两类国家：储蓄率持续下降的高收入国家和储蓄率持续上升的上中等收入国家。基于两类国家和全球的储蓄率变动、人口结构演化等典型事实，本文建立了一个两国交叠世代模型，以分析全球储蓄率下降以及在此背景下全球经济失衡的机制。基于此模型的计量检验表明，高收入国家和上中等收入国家并非对等的经济体，前者的储蓄行为决定了全球的储蓄率变动，而上中等收入国家的人口结构变化、尤其是幼儿抚养比下降所带来的人口红利为前者的储蓄率下降提供了条件。两类国家储蓄行为的非对等性是全球化时代新的“中心—外围”模式的反映。此次危机正是作为中心的高收入国家“过度特权”和其“特权”不可持续的结果。走出危机之路看来只能是高收入国家提高储蓄率，但是，其过程肯定很痛苦，其对全球经济的影响也是高度不确定的。 |
| Abstract | During the past four decades, the global economy has experienced a long-term decline of saving rate rather than “global saving glut”. Therefore, countries with higher saving rate should not be blamed for global imbalance. This paper focuses on two groups of countries, high-income and upper-middle income countries, which determine the dynamics of global economy. Based on some stylized facts relating to change of demography and saving rate, I build an overlapping-generations model to analyze the mechanism of decline of global saving rate and its relationship with global imbalance. The model and econometric tests show it’s the behavior of group of high-income countries that decides the trend of global saving rate, while the group of upper-middle countries just reacts passively to that trend, although demographic dynamics of latter, especially its demographic dividend caused by the decreasing child dependency, make it possible for the former to decrease its saving rate. The asymmetry between the influences of these two groups of countries is the natural result of new “core-periphery” global model. Today’s global crisis reflects the “exorbitant privilege” enjoyed by core countries, i.e. high-income countries, is not sustainable and the only way out of crisis will be the increase of saving rate of core countries. But the process of increasing saving rate has been proved difficult and the economic consequence of that increase is also highly uncertain. |
| 文章编号 | WP361 |
| 登载时间 | 2012-09-12 |
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