短期异质性、长期收敛与中美贸易再平衡—基于分频数据的PMG动态行业异质面板模型
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| Title | Short-term Heterogeneity, Long-term Convergence and the Sino-US Trade Rebalance
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| 作者 | 刘啟仁 |
| Author | Liu Qiren |
| 作者单位 | 上海对外贸易学院国际经贸学院 |
| Organization | Shanghai Institute of Foreign Trade |
| 作者Email | liuqiren@126.com |
| 中文关键词 | 贸易平衡 中美贸易 汇率弹性 异质性 人民币汇率 |
| Key Words | Balance of trade; Sino-US trade; exchange rate volatility; heterogeneity; RMB exchange rate |
| 内容提要 | 本文选取80个行业年频（1994-2011）和月频（2002M1- 2012M2）数据构建“动态行业异质面板模型”，通过分层次实证检验表明：中美贸易平衡的汇率和收入弹性具有“短期异质性”和“长期收敛”特征，采用混合组别平均法（PMG）能较好地结合该特征，考虑异常值等问题其结果均稳健。汇率和收入对中美贸易平衡的长期影响符合“弹性分析法”经典结论，中国需引入市场机制使汇率双向浮动，美国需改善需求结构并放宽高技术出口限制，共同促进长期贸易再平衡。 |
| Abstract | Using both yearly (1994-2011) and monthly (2002M1-2012M2) data for 80 industries of Sino-US trade, we present evidence of “Short-term Heterogeneity” and “Long-term Convergence” characters between Sino-US trade balance and its major influence factors, such as real exchange rate and national income. This result is robust for applying pooled mean group (PMG) to estimate the dynamic heterogeneous panel model, but not for other estimation methods, such as pooled OLS, random effect, fixed effect and mean group. the robust PMG estimation results show that both exchange rate and income elasticity are in line with the classic findings of the elastic analysis, so China needs to introduce market mechanisms to cultivate exchange rate volatility, meanwhile, the U.S. needs to improve the structure of imports and gradually relax the high-tech export restrictions in order to stimulate China's imports, only with joint efforts can both countries achieve the objective of long-term trade rebalancing. |
| 文章编号 | WP355 |
| 登载时间 | 2012-09-05 |
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